Why one expert thinks Bitcoin is the best savings technology ever created

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) had a banner year in 2024, following a long recession following the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of spot bitcoin ETF products. Now, the crypto community is closely watching the next pending SEC decision: the approval of an ether spot ETF linked to Ethereum futures (ETH-USD).

Swan Bitcoin Chief Investment Officer Raphael Zagury comes to Market Domination Overtime to discuss the outlook for these leading cryptocurrencies, also commenting on what the 2024 US presidential race could mean for the crypto space and the likelihood of an ether ETF.

“If you look at where we are right now in terms of volatility, the volatility is pretty low. We’re in the 5%, I would say, bottom decile in times of volatility,” Zagury says. “And I think the good news, if the past can give us any idea of ​​what might happen in the future, is that periods of very low volatility in Bitcoin tend to have periods of out-of-the-money returns , if you look 60 or 90 days ahead But in the short term, a lot of things can happen in the short term, traders control the price…”

For more expert insights and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime.

This message was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video transcription

The micro-strategy digs deeper into Bitcoin and plans to buy another $786 million in the cryptocurrency.

And although Bitcoin has reaped the rewards of this year’s launch of the Bitcoin ETF S spot, crypto investors are already looking ahead to the market’s next step with the Ethereum ETF spot.

Perhaps they should be approved this summer here to discuss further.

Swan Bitcoin, Chief Investment Officer Rafael Zaguri, on top of all that, we were just talking about politics.

There has been a flurry of lobbying activity in Washington regarding the crypto industry.

All that being said, we haven’t seen many fireworks on the price action front lately.

Raphael.

So, what should investors look for in this area?

Yeah, thanks for having me, Julie.

Great to be here.

I think first of all, you know, when we talk about double haters, as I was just listening to the topic, I think crypto is becoming a topic that could influence.

Lots of double haters.

I think a lot of people have unfortunately lost a lot of faith in the system over the last few decades.

And when you have a team like that and we have politicians jumping to one side, maybe they’ll move double haters, but coming back to the price, that’s what you got mentioned, uh, the price of Bitcoin has been very stable, I think in the, in the, you know, if you look at the last month or so, um, this is nothing new.

The story continues

This has happened in the past.

If you actually look at the price of Bitcoin, the way it’s moving, most of the time, you know, it’s down sideways.

And then most of the benefits are actually captured over very short periods of time, right?

And I always say that this is why it is an asset that is very difficult to hold over the long term.

Um, because most of the time they’re going to endure pain, it’s weeks and months of pain, you know, for the glory days, that’s the typical trajectory of Bitcoin just going back to numbers.

If you look at where we are right now, in terms of volatility, the volatility is quite low, I would say the bottom 5% decile in times of volatility.

And I think the good news, if the past is any indication of what might happen in the future, is that periods of very low volatility in Bitcoin tend to have periods of out-of-the-money returns if you look at 6090 days in advance, right?

But in the short term, a lot of things can happen in the short term.

Traders control the price.

And I think it’s ever more important for us to zoom out.

Look, get back to basics, then think about where Bitcoin might fit in.

Not, you know, in 90 days, 60 days, but you know, in 5, 10 years because as an asset, that’s what we should be thinking about for Bitcoin, that interests me, Rafael too when you talk to friends and family and they ask you what, why would you own crypto here?

I’m interested, you know, what are the reasons why you tell them?

Because I feel like maybe the story has changed, you know, it was, I think, an idealistic Rafael, you know, at least among true believers, it was really seen as a change paradigm.

Um, I wonder if you think that’s still the case or if you tell them?

It is a store of value.

It is a means of exchange.

What are the reasons?

Yeah, Josh, you know, I come from the traditional financial industry.

I worked at Golden, I worked at Merrow.

I worked at Deutsche.

Me, I worked at every major bank and for many years I tried to tell people about Bitcoin and most of them just hesitated.

And I think about that largely because people are starting, as you mentioned, a lot of them are starting with very many exchanges on their first um you know, they’re trying to put Bitcoin alongside Paypal and d other things and other technologies.

But Bitcoin is much bigger than that.

From my point of view.

I think Bitcoin is the best savings technology we have ever seen as an economist.

When I look at Bitcoin and you know, a monetary policy is written in code, it’s transparent, it’s completely predictable over 15 years without any changes.

RIGHT.

There is not a single central bank in the world whose monetary policy is close or similar to what we saw with Bitcoin.

And at the end of the day, when we talk about inflation and predictability, what really kills the plans of economic actors is the volatility of inflation.

If we had a 2% which is the inflation objective of central banks, which by definition is already very bad.

But let’s say they managed to hit 2% every month or every year without any change, which would be bad enough.

But that’s not what’s happening.

There is huge volatility some months, you know, the inflation of things you buy may be closer to 10%, other months will be negative and planning around that has detrimental consequences on the economy and at longer term.

Not only does money printing continue, but things continue to deteriorate.

And you know, if you look at a world of total unpredictability, that’s what we have and unpredictability increases Bitcoin.

I think it’s a beacon of predictability in a world where you can’t really predict anything.

I don’t think if you look at a Bitcoin price chart you would say that it’s a beacon of predictability and that 2% inflation means growth.

So with growth comes inflation, that’s generally how the economy works.

Although yes, inflation was very low before the current regime.

But leaving that aside for a minute, Rafael, I want to go back to something that you mentioned at the beginning when we were talking about politics and the attention that people in the crypto community have kind of focused on this election.

Um, what are you looking for in terms of the biggest policy change that you would advocate for that would help the crypto industry?

Yeah, I think we’re already seeing if I said, you know, in the past, if I told people that Bitcoin would become a talking point in the presidential debates, you know, people would say that was crazy, and they made it never happen, that, you know, it was something that could never happen and it’s happening.

It started, you know, with the senators talking about Bitcoin and then we had, you know, more and more people talking about it and now we have Trump coming in and what was a surprise for most people, even for some, some of them. we were in Bitcoin for a long time.

Hearing him say, you know, the positive things he’s done.

Um, you know, and like I said, at the beginning, I think for people who are very disappointed with a lot of things that are happening in politics, this could be, you know, a very substantial change.

Um On top of all that, if you look at, you know, like uh, the ETF S being approved, I think I started with a lot of uh uh a lot of these things, uh and the whole process of getting the , the Bitcoin ETF approved, you know, that, that, that was also, I think AF was difficult to get through.

But the bottom line of all of this is we’re getting a lot of things that, you know, we’ve been looking for for a long time, which is getting more support, more clarity around, you know, the way you need to keep Bitcoin, how you can wrap it.

And all of that is positive, I think, and I think ultimately, even when we’re talking about an Ethereum ETF, I think all, all ETFs should be approved, what, the SEC should focus more on and that’s more of what it was supposed to focus on, I think from the beginning, which is there, you know what they started on when we had Securities Act 3433 and 34.

The goal was to provide better transparency, better disclosure, you know, to the prospectors that were really highlighting the risks.

And I think there’s an opportunity here for the SEC to go back to its original mandate and contribute to that.

But overall, it’s just very good and very positive to see the developments.

I think, you know, we’re definitely moving in the right direction.

Raphael.

Happy to see you.

Thank you for taking time for us.

Enjoy it.

THANKS.

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