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Why do we tend to follow the herd?

Financial Block Staff

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Why do we tend to follow the herd?

We are naturally programmed to follow the herd.

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Herd behavior is ingrained in human behavior, and the profound impact it can have on global asset markets is abundantly evident in the high volatility that cryptocurrencies repeatedly experience.

These digital assets go through bullish periods that can include wild optimism and eye-popping gains, then suffer bearish periods characterized by panic selling and significant losses.

While there are certainly contrarian investors in the cryptocurrency space, many market participants participate in the herd, which essentially means they follow the actions of the broader group instead of conducting their own. analysis.

Scientists have described herd behavior as be universal in the animal kingdom, humans being no exception.

A particularly stark example of how this affects our financial decision-making is FOMO (fear of missing out), a development that market analysts frequently point to as an explanation for intense cryptocurrency price rises.

Why is this behavior so ingrained? Several academics and other experts have looked into this very question, seeking to describe the exact reasons why we have such a strong tendency to follow the herd.

Groups offer “safety and security”

Chartered consumer psychologist Dr Simon Moore has highlighted a practical reason why people display such a strong tendency to follow groups.

“Humans are social creatures – as such we are predisposed to social connectivity,” Moore, chief psychologist and CEO of the London-based behavioral strategy agency. BIhighlighted through comments submitted by email.

“Groups provide us with a perception of safety and security – membership in a group also ensures that we increase our resource potential (from other group members) as well as their help and support (both physical and psychological) “, he noted.

“So humans generally give weight to the actions and decisions of the majority (wrongly thinking that if many people act or think that way, they are more likely to be correct),” Moore said.

Richard Lehman, assistant professor of behavioral finance at UC Berkeley Extensionoffered a similar view, stating that “livestock farming provides human comfort and is clearly a key driver in our social life today. »

“On the other hand, in the field of finance and investment, this can have undesirable effects,” believes the expert, who is also founder and chief educator of Behavioral Finance.compointed out via email.

“This tends to cause people to blindly follow others and contributes to FOMO – the fear of missing out – neither of which is considered a rational reason to invest in certain things.” , he added.

“At the extremes, herd behavior is cited as a contributing factor to historical bubbles and crashes in stocks, tulips, and other similar commodities. »

A useful shortcut

David Nussbaum, who currently works as an adjunct associate professor of behavioral sciences at the University of Chicago Booth School of Businessoffered a practical explanation for why we tend to follow the herd.

“Humans are a social animal, so it makes sense that they frequently turn to others to learn about the world,” he said in emailed comments.

“This can often be a very useful strategy — if everyone is doing it, there’s probably a good reason, and it probably won’t be dangerous — although there are certainly major exceptions,” noted Nussbaum, who teaches a course on power and influence. at the business school.

“By paying attention to what others say and do, we can learn a lot about good behavior,” he emphasized.

“What behavior we pay attention to and what it says about us can also be very important,” the academic said, offering more nuance on the subject.

“For example, it might make sense to copy the behavior of people who look like us or who have an identity that we aspire to – for crypto, I guess what that means, in your opinion, is that you are bold and innovative – but much more. It makes less sense to copy people we don’t identify with (it would be strange if an adult came to a children’s birthday party and copied the children’s behavior rather than the parents’),” he said. He specifies.

“In summary, there are many benefits to herding – learning and copying the beliefs and behaviors of others – and it is a very common human instinct that draws on a long evolutionary history,” Nussbaum concluded.

Buyer Beware

The expert pointed out that following a larger group can be counterproductive, noting that “if you blindly follow the behavior of others and rarely take the time to think about why you believe what you do or act the way you do you do (and why others can be counterproductive). in doing so), you expose yourself to the risk of following the herd to the edge of a cliff.

A perfect example would be investors who purchased bitcoin shortly before the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high in late 2021.

While the digital currency was worth over $60,000 CoinMarketCap at the time, it declined a bit afterward, falling below $17,000 in 2022.

Even though the world’s most important digital currency has recovered significantly since then, investors who bought bitcoin shortly before that peak have still not recouped their losses.

In light of such stories, following the herd is not always the best option.

Lehman spoke about it, offering a deeper insight.

“Investing today can be complicated and requires knowledge, expertise and data that many people do not have,” he noted.

“Therefore, seeking advice from others is a rational thing to do,” Lehman continued.

“But it’s easy to assume that there is wisdom in the actions of the mob and that’s not always the case.”

Disclosure: I own Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Ether, EOS and SOL.

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We are the editorial team of Financial Block, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Financial Block, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products

Financial Block Staff

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Bitcoin Surpasses $63,000 as Money Flows into New US Investment Products

Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)

Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.

Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.

Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices

The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.

A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.

Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF

The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.

The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.

The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.

The story continues

Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus

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FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun

Financial Block Staff

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International Accounting Bulletin

Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.

Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.

At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.

Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.

Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.

Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.

Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”

FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”

“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”

“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.


The information on this website has been included in good faith for general information purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we make no representations, warranties or assurances, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our website.

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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision

Financial Block Staff

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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
  • Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.

  • Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.

  • 10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.

BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.

Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.

Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.

Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.

10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.

The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.

“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”

The story continues

UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.

UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.

UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.

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The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Financial Block Staff

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The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.

Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”

This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.

Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.

Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.

And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.

The story continues

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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