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Bitcoin isn’t tracking meme stocks like it did three years ago, although this week’s stock market action could indicate that a major crypto rally is on the way.

GameStop and other meme stocks AMC Entertainment are up more than 160% in the last two days. Meanwhile, bitcoin remains little changed, falling just 0.1% over the same period, according to Coin Metrics. In 2021, on the other hand, GameStop and AMC rose 821% and 373%, respectively, from January to April. Bitcoin’s gains over this period, although more modest, still reached 96%.

“This is not 2021, when the world was locked down and flooded with liquidity,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Nexo. “It’s worth remembering that GameStop mania peaked in January 2021, well before Bitcoin’s $60,000-plus highs in April and November of that year. If you want to read the events of the last 24 hours, you might suggest that GameStop may be acting as a leading indicator. the next leg of bitcoin’s post-halving run.”

“Today’s stronger-than-estimated U.S. producer price data is a reminder that the macroeconomic outlook[economic] and the inflationary backdrop is not conducive to a bitcoin rally, and is likely to remain capped after an explosive open until 2024,” he added.

To be sure, there is a world of cryptocurrencies beyond bitcoin that includes meme coins. Even so, they did not join the party in the same way. Dogecoin It is Shiba Inu coins are up about 3% each over the past two days, according to Coin Metrics.

Bitcoin is widely considered to be in a class of its own in the crypto world, driven by macro factors when there are no specific catalysts to consider, such as the launch of bitcoin exchange trade funds in the US or the Bitcoin halving that occurs every four years. .

Noelle Acheson, an economist and author of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter, added that the run on meme stocks was “more of a revving of the engines than a complete takeoff” and that macro issues are still putting pressure on bitcoin.

“Tomorrow’s inflation data could lift sentiment if it is better than expected, but uncertainty is high,” she said.

This year, the US allowed the introduction of the first bitcoin ETFs, driven largely by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. The funds are expected to attract new types of investors and steady flows of new money while reducing volatility. Additionally, the 2023 US regional banking crisis, which kicked off the current bitcoin cycle, has turned many people to the potential of cryptocurrency as an alternative financial system and hedge against uncertainty.

“Bitcoin is no longer seen as a purely speculative asset,” said Acheson. “Its store of value narrative is more deeply rooted, its holder base is much broader and it has become, to some extent, institutionalized.”

Sylvia Jablonski, CEO and chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs, added that although bitcoin was “added to the meme stock category” in 2021, the market is starting to show signs that it is being taken more seriously now.

“There has been a shift toward credibility in the longevity of bitcoin ownership,” she said. “Bitcoin has become more commercial in its ETF wrapper, and both retail and institutional investors tend to hold both Bitcoin and Ether rather than trading them daily like meme stocks.”

With bitcoin’s recovery so far in the first quarter of the year, briefly approaching $73,000, has more recently been pulling back, in what many investors describe as a healthy move. With few catalysts and challenged by macroeconomic headwinds, these investors also warn that the lull in the price of bitcoin could last a few more monthsand perhaps push prices even lower.

“These periods of consolidation can last a long time and are extremely monotonous,” Trenchev said. “The bitcoin narrative has dried up… and I wouldn’t expect the revival of the meme stock frenzy to be a catalyst for bitcoin’s next move.”

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