Bitcoin
Why Bitcoin and Crypto Are “On the Verge of Cannibalism”: Ikigai CIO
Travis Kling, founder and chief investment officer at Ikigai Asset Management, shared his insights into the current state of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, which he described as follows: “Bitcoin is ~10% below ATHs and the timeline seems to be on the verge of cannibalism.” In a series of details Posts at X, Kling dissected the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, ETF flows, and internal market dynamics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
Why is Bitcoin trading stable?
Kling began his analysis by addressing Bitcoin’s performance in relation to the broader macroeconomic environment. Despite the NASDAQ rising 16% since April 19 following a bearish rally induced by market concerns about rate cuts, Bitcoin has notably underperformed, remaining relatively stable. Kling pointed out: “BTC is trading very poorly relative to macro.” This poor performance is particularly impressive given that, during this period, US equity markets repeatedly set new all-time highs, while Bitcoin stagnated.
A significant part of Kling’s analysis focused on the dynamics of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. As of May 13, the market has witnessed 19 consecutive days of robust ETF inflows totaling approximately $4 billion. Surprisingly, these substantial inflows only resulted in a 17% increase in the price of Bitcoin, which Kling argues is disheartening. He noted: “It is true that BTC is up 17% during this period, but why not more? Why not significantly higher maximums?”
This question points to underlying issues in market structure or investor sentiment that may be dampening the expected bullish response to inflow increases. Furthermore, recent ETF outflows have coincided with a 7% drop in the price of Bitcoin during a similar period, further complicating the narrative around ETF impacts.
Kling suggests that while ETF inflows and outflows are significant, they may not fully capture underlying market dynamics, indicating a complex interplay of arbitrage opportunities and market sentiment. “I think one thing we can say with confidence is that ETFs have a lot of arb flow. Just look at the 13Fs. There is the NAV arb and then it is transferred to futures and spot and there is the same basis trading that has always been present in this market,” Kling wrote.
He also speculated on external factors affecting the price of Bitcoin, such as possible government sales of confiscated Bitcoin during the Silk Road Operation. While admitting the lack of hard evidence, Kling aligns his hypothesis with the timing of certain market movements and known government actions. Additionally, he highlighted Ethereum’s influence on Bitcoin market dynamics, especially during a week of significant activity around an Ethereum ETF, which saw the highest weekly ETH to BTC volume on record since a previous peak.
What to expect from Ether and Altcoins?
Despite Ethereum’s influence on Bitcoin, ETH itself faces challenges. The expectation around Spot Ethereum ETFs did not translate into positive and sustained price action. Ethereum remains 30% below its all-time high, with upcoming ETFs potentially a critical factor. Kling postulates: “If [Ethereum ETF inflows] are strong, ETH will likely tear up strongly. If they are weak, ETH can be sold.” Uncertainty regarding the strength of these inflows and their impact on the market reflects broader market anxieties.
The broader altcoin market is also suffering, with many tokens significantly below their highs and struggling to find a foothold. Kling’s observations on the altcoin sector are particularly harsh: “The meta airdrop has been slowly dying for months. Alts are overwhelmed with token unlocks from holders that are in too many multiples and will hammer a non-existent supply.” This scenario illustrates the difficulties faced by smaller altcoins as they navigate a market dominated by big players like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In conclusion, Kling’s comprehensive analysis suggests a cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, facing internal competition and macroeconomic mismatches that could define its trajectory in the coming months.
“So overall, this is what causes the schedule to act as if prices are 75% lower than they are now. BTC is likely rising this year. ETH is likely somewhere between fine and gangbusters this year based on ETH ETF flows. But the gap between BTC/ETH and everything else is big and will likely widen this year. If crypto can piece together even a modicum of legitimate narrative that can generate real inflows for Alts, everything could change quickly. But the current list of ‘narratives’ is unlikely to be able to do this,” concluded Kling.
At press time, BTC traded at $65,138.
Featured image from YouTube/What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com