Markets
Trump’s Polymarket Odds Hit Another All-Time High After Vance Pick for VP
The odds of Donald Trump retaking the White House in November have hit another all-time high after he picked Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, traders at cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket are reporting.
Polymarket’s ‘Yes’ Actions for Trump in Presidential Election to contract were trading at 72 cents as of mid-morning Tuesday, New York time, indicating that the market believes the Republican candidate has a 72% chance of winning. Each share pays $1 if the associated prediction comes true and bupkis if it doesn’t. Bets are programmed into a smart contract, or software application, on the Polygon blockchain and denominated in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars.
Trump announced his pick on Monday, two days after the former president’s chances of winning had reached previous record 70 percent when he survived an assassination attempt during a demonstration in Pennsylvania.
That harrowing incident turned into a victory for the candidate, as iconic images of a bloodied but untamed Trump began circulating online, after two weeks in which the national debate focused on the aging nature of his opponent, incumbent President Joe Biden.
A total of $262 million has been wagered on Polymarket’s presidential election contract, a documentation for cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, if not All prediction markets. The four-year-old platform is riding a wave of election betting enthusiasm, despite being closed to the U.S. under a regulatory deal.
PredictIt, an old election betting site operating in the United States under a limited regulatory exemption and settles bets in old green banknotes, has demonstrated a similar trend“Yes” for Trump shares rose to 69 cents from 60 cents before the Pennsylvania shooting.
In prediction markets, traders bet on the verifiable outcome of real-world events within defined time frames. Bets can be on anything from weather to the elections sport events TO celebrity love stories.
Critics call it prediction markets a form of gamblingbut proponents argue that they have positive spillover effects for the public. People making predictions are putting their money on the line, so they have a strong incentive to do thorough research and express your honest opinionsmaking them likely more reliable predictors than pollsters or experts.