Markets
Trump’s guilty verdict in the Hush Money trial? 76% chance, say cryptocurrency bettors on the prediction market
Crypto bettors are betting on the outcome of the former president Donald Trump‘S criminal trial in New York.
What happened: There are several predictions markets related to the Trump trial. THE impeached twice former president faces 34 criminal charges from accusations of falsifying company documents – charges punishable by up to four years in prison.
Polymarket, touted as the world’s largest prediction market, is asking whether Trump will be found guilty in the silence case ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
The market shows a 76% chance that Trump will be found guilty. Over $77,000 was bet on the market.
In April the market was above 80%. This suggests fewer bettors see the trial proving Trump’s guilt.
Another prediction market asks whether Trump will be sent to prison before the 2024 presidential election. Over $860,000 has been bet on the market. The market sees only a 14% chance that Trump will be put in prison before Election Day.
If Trump is found guilty of any charges, he faces up to four years in prison on each charge. It will be up to the judge Juan Mercan decide on sentencing.
An appeal by Trump’s team could also push the outcome of the trial and sentencing, potentially beyond the election.
A similar prediction market asks whether Trump will be found guilty of some crime, silence or otherwise, before the 2024 presidential election. The market shows a 71% chance that Trump will be found guilty. Over $116,000 was bet on the market.
It will be up to the judge Juan Mercan decide on the sentence for the silence trial. An appeal by Trump’s team could also push back the trial outcome and sentencing, potentially beyond the election.
The 12-person jury will begin deliberating the case on Wednesday and issue a verdict. The jury’s potential outcome includes finding Trump guilty on all counts, finding Trump guilty on some counts, or finding Trump not guilty on all counts.
If the jury fails to reach a verdict, it will return to the judge for new instructions and try again, creating the potential for a hung jury finding.
Because it is important: A recent CBS News poll had 56% of respondents saying Trump he was definitely guilty or possibly guilty of falsifying business records relating to secret payments made to an adult actress Stormy Daniels.
While this represents a majority of Americans surveyed, the 12-member jury will have to come to a unanimous decision in the trial for Trump to be found guilty of any charges.
Polymarket offers bets on articles in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more. ON Polymarketusers deposit on Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and you can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ET).
One of the biggest markets remains the 2024 presidential election, which has attracted more than $140 million in bets.
According to bettors, the market shows Trump with a 56% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. President Joe Biden he has a 37% chance of being re-elected.
Another important political prediction market centers on who Trump will choose be his running mate.
Image: mid-trip
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