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This Bitcoin Halving Is Different Than Any Other. Here’s What You Need to Know

Just a few years ago, the Bitcoin halving was celebrated only by early cryptocurrency enthusiasts, who swore by it as a defining characteristic of a revolutionary, anti-establishment, deflationary asset.
NOW, Bitcoin Bitcoin has been embraced by Wall Street’s biggest institutions and continues to attract curious retail investors every cycle. From the excited to the bemused to the unimpressed, cryptocurrency market watchers know that this halving is coming and that it must mean something positive for bitcoin.
This is a technical event that occurs on the Bitcoin network roughly every four years, halving the supply of the cryptocurrency to create a scarcity effect that turns it into “digital gold.” Historically, this sets the stage for a new cycle and a price rally, but this one is a little different.
“The halving is the ultimate geeky event for bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration takes it a step further as the reduced supply combined with new demand for ETFs creates an explosive cocktail,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Nexo. “What makes this halving unique is that bitcoin has already surpassed the peak of the last cycle — something it never did before the quadrennial event — making predicting the length and ferocity of this cycle much trickier.”
See the table…
Bitcoin (BTC) enters its fourth halving period next week.
After the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, bitcoin’s price increased approximately 93x, 30x, and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle peak. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, and some even warn that with a lower supply every four years, the days of such a significant impact on bitcoin’s price are over. are probably already behind us.
However, Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, said that “if there’s ever a time to be a little more optimistic” about post-halving returns, it’s this year.
“This bitcoin bull cycle, which started earlier due to the January approval of spot ETFs, could well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025,” Trenchev added.
Whether you’re looking for a deeper understanding of bitcoin as a new deflationary asset, or simply want to speculate on the price of bitcoin in the coming weeks, here’s what you need to know about the halving and its potential impact on the market.
What is happening?
The halving occurs when the incentives for bitcoin miners are reduced by half, as set out in the Bitcoin blockchain code. It is scheduled to occur every 210,000 blocks, or about four years.
As a reminder, miners operate the machines that do the work (essentially solving a very complex mathematical problem) of recording new blocks of Bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.
Miners get two benefits from mining: transaction fees voluntarily paid by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 6.25 newly created bitcoins, or about $437,500 as of Thursday morning. Between April 18 and April 21, mining rewards will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoins. The incentive was originally 50 bitcoins, but was reduced to 6.25 in 2020.
Reducing block rewards reduces the supply of bitcoins by slowing the rate at which new coins are created, helping to maintain the idea that bitcoin is digital gold, with a limited supply helping determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, according to the Bitcoin Code.
Market impact now and later
The halving is not like an on/off switch that flips at a specific time. Indeed, it is reasonable to assume that the day will come and go without much market action. Of course, there could certainly be volatility fueled by speculators who might trade on the event. Swan’s Lubka cautioned that investors should not mistake this for the technical shift underway.
“I don’t think we’re seeing a big move in one direction or the other, but even if there were, it wouldn’t have anything to do mechanically with the halving,” he said. However, “in the months that follow, every day, there is [will be] “There’s about $30 million less in bitcoin sold. That can add up quickly and have an impact over this period.”
That $30 million assumes a bitcoin price of around $70,000.
The important thing for investors to understand about the halving and its potential impact on the market, Lubka said, is that miners are selling a large portion of the bitcoins they receive in order to pay their daily bills.
“These are very expensive businesses that have to consume a lot of energy and other things to do their job,” he said. “Miners are constantly selling the bitcoins they mine just to cover costs. When that number is cut in half, there’s no question: miners are selling half of their bitcoins.”
“They are the most consistent sellers,” he added. “Some hedge funds might sell their positions… but miners sell every day, every week, every month in predictable amounts – and that pressure is cut in half.”
Diminishing returns from one halving to the next
Bitcoin has always hit record highs in the months following its halving, making it such a celebrated day for enthusiasts. However, each time, as the mining reward and supply of bitcoins have decreased, the returns from the day of the halving to the peak of the cycle have also decreased.
“Guessing the final outcome of bitcoin after each halving is the ultimate sport,” Trenchev said. “What we do know is that every post-halving rally has seen diminishing returns. … Even a measly 2x would put bitcoin around $130,000 — not to be sneezed at.”
That trend could reverse this year, Lubka said, although it would not be the result of the expected supply shock but rather the new demand shock. Thanks to the advent of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, demand for the cryptocurrency is stronger than ever, according to CryptoQuant.
Data shows that historically, demand for bitcoin from “whales” increases after each halving, leading to a price increase. This year, however, demand from these whales (which includes OG bitcoiners, new investors, and bitcoin ETF holders) is already at an all-time high, and the block reward hasn’t even been reduced yet.
“The once significant influence of the bitcoin halving on prices has diminished, as new bitcoin issuance declines relative to the total amount of bitcoin available for sale,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. “In contrast, the growth in demand for bitcoin appears to be the main driver of the post-halving price rally.”
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Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products

Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)
Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.
Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.
Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices
The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.
A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.
Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF
The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.
The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.
The story continues
Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus
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FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun

Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.
Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.
At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.
Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.
Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.
Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.
Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”
FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”
“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”
“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.
The information on this website has been included in good faith for general information purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we make no representations, warranties or assurances, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our website.
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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision

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Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.
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Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.
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10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.
BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.
Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.
Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.
Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.
10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.
The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.
“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”
The story continues
UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.
News
The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.
Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”
This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.
Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.
Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.
And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.
The story continues
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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