Bitcoin
MicroStrategy’s Cash Flow Raises Some Eyebrows Amid Bitcoin Rally
(Bloomberg) — Analysts are starting to pay more attention than usual to MicroStrategy Inc.’s underlying enterprise software business, a proxy for Bitcoin.
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How to better invest cash generated from operations is what originally prompted co-founder and CEO Michael Saylor to turn to Bitcoin four years ago. Since then, the Tysons Corner, Va.-based company has adopted a two-pronged strategy of investing in the cryptocurrency instead of traditional assets like short-term Treasuries and ramping up its software operations.
While MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stash has swelled to nearly $15 billion in recent years to make it the largest corporate holder of the digital asset, revenue from the software business has stagnated. Revenue is expected to be little changed when the company reports second-quarter results later Thursday.
“To me, I think the big issue is just making sure their cash flows are sufficient to cover the incremental interest expense associated with the convertible debt they issued,” said Lance Vitanza, an analyst at TD Cowen who has a “buy” rating on MicroStrategy shares. “If my estimates are correct, they don’t have a lot of room for error if their software business underperforms.”
MicroStrategy has used various means to raise money to buy Bitcoin beyond its operating cash flow, such as issuing more than $2 billion in convertible notes this year. Profits from the software business are used to pay related interest expenses as well as taxes.
The company has about $45 million in interest expense, plus about $20 million in cash taxes this year; and about $82 million in earnings before items like taxes, Vitanza estimates. Given the tight cash situation, Vitanza expects the company to hold off on issuing additional notes to buy more Bitcoin until next year. Despite the company’s nearly doubling in value of its Bitcoin holdings, the tokens don’t add to net income or net income because they don’t generate any revenue.
This has been of little concern to most investors so far. The company’s shares are up 156% this year, outpacing the roughly 50% jump in Bitcoin’s price during the same period.
MicroStrategy will report a quarterly loss of 78 cents per share and revenue will be little changed at $119.3 million, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It earned $1.68 per share in the year-earlier period. The company will also likely record an impairment charge on its Bitcoin stockpile, which could be enough to make it unprofitable for 12 of the 16 quarters since it began buying Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg calculations.
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Even if its software business stumbles, MicroStrategy still has plenty of options to keep paying its bills. None of its debt is due until 2027 or later. To raise funds, it could issue another convertible, take out a loan, issue more stock or even sell Bitcoin.
“They would have to sell if they needed cash — especially to pay down debt these days,” said Austin Campbell, an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia Business School.
Cash flow could also be affected by an accounting change coming next year that will require MicroStrategy to value its digital assets for the market. The company may have to pay a 15% corporate alternative minimum tax if its average annual adjusted financial statement income for any consecutive three-year period preceding the fiscal year exceeds $1 billion, according to a company filing.
With the adoption of the rule, “we could become subject to the alternative minimum tax if, for example, we have significant unrealized gains on our Bitcoin holdings,” MicroStrategy said in the filing. “If we become subject to these new taxes under the IRA for these or any other reasons, it could materially affect our financial results, including our earnings and cash flow, and our financial condition.”
“The likelihood of MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor selling their Bitcoin holdings appears very low if Michael Saylor’s public statements are true,” said Jacob Joseph, an analyst at researcher CCData. “As a prominent proponent of the Bitcoin HODLing movement, Saylor has consistently shared bullish projections for Bitcoin’s future value.”
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