Markets
Markets Should Get Short-Term Boost After Trump Survives Shooting
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 13, 2024.
Brendan McDermid, interviewed by Reuters
Cryptocurrency markets have also recovered – with Bitcoin up as much as 5% on Monday to $63,000 on hopes of a more positive scenario for the digital asset under a Trump presidency.
“The events of Saturday, if they do anything, will strengthen the possibility that President Donald Trump will win the election in November. I think that’s what the markets have responded to,” Casey said.
Brian Gardner, Stifel’s chief political strategist for Washington, agrees, predicting a rally in risk appetite to kick off the new trading week.
“We believe investors will agree with our assessment that the attempted assassination of Donald Trump increases his chances of winning the presidential election,” he wrote in a Sunday note.
Polls showed Trump maintaining his lead over the president Joe Biden a day after the shooting at a Republican rally in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, betting odds have increased.
It follows Biden’s already low support, even among his Democratic base, amid concerns about his cognitive abilities. Casey said the weekend’s events also provide a respite for Biden, who has been under pressure to step aside, and all but guarantees his candidacy in November.
Risk consultancy BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, said in a note to CNBC that Trump’s odds of winning the election have increased significantly, which “could be a positive ahead of the election as it reduces election uncertainty.” But it added that any momentum is likely to fade.
Guillaume Menuet, head of investment strategy and economics for EMEA at Citi Global Wealth, agreed. He told CNBC that the weekend’s events would likely drive markets for a “couple of days” before investors’ attention returned to the real economy.
“These events, while unfortunate in terms of political change, do not really change the direction of global markets and the global economy,” he said on Monday.
Indeed, with more than three months to go until the Nov. 5 election, Casey said it was too early to say what the long-term impact would be on the market, as a series of political events are likely to add to volatility in the coming months.
One person was killed and two others were seriously injured during Saturday’s attackprompting both Trump and Biden to call for calm and unity amid concerns over growing political divisions and possible further violence.
“It’s probably too far from now until November to be particularly bearish or bullish. What we’ve seen in the last month or so, and what we’re likely to see in the coming months, is frankly point-blank volatility, period,” Casey said.
Veteran investor David Roche, chairman of Quantum Strategy, said in a note Sunday that a Trump presidency, which he now predicts, would be bad news for markets given his protectionist geopolitical stance.
“Tariffs would hit US inflation and growth. US Fed cuts would end. That would mean the end of the bull market,” he said.
Meanwhile, Nomura’s Gareth Nicholson, in a note to CNBC, said a Trump presidency would be an overall “negative risk factor” for Asian stocks, and Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday that European markets would also be affected from the new uncertainty over trade policy under the new Trump administration.