Markets Prediction: 72% Chances of Trump Win After Shooting

The attempted murder of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday appeared to boost his chances of becoming president. According to Polymarketthe world’s largest prediction market, the odds of him winning the election have increased from 60% to 72%, with the near victory appearing to have bolstered public support for Trump.

According to the same market, Biden’s chances have increased slightly, to 18%, while the odds of Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Biden and emerging victorious have fallen sharply, from 13% to 5%. Meanwhile, on the prediction market Predict itTrump’s odds have increased to 67%, while Biden’s have dropped to 26%.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, are markets in which traders trade contracts that pay based on the outcomes of unknown future events. The prices generated by these contracts are like a collective prediction among market participants. Thus, price equals probabilities. For example, Trump’s stock is trading at 72 cents, which indicates a 72% chance that he will win.

If the best trader believes that the true odds of Trump winning the election are greater than 72%, he or she would buy “Yes” shares at 72 cents each. If Trump wins, each “Yes” share would be worth $1, creating a profit of 28 cents per share. In that outcome, anyone who had bought “No” shares would have their investment worthless. Traders can buy and sell their shares at any time before the outcome, moving the stock price and, therefore, the odds.

Of all the prediction markets, Polymarket aims to be the most transparent and trustless. The platform is decentralized and built on the Ethereum blockchain, and users place bets with stablecoins. In May, the company announced it had raised over $70 million in its Series A and B funding rounds, with Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin among the investors.

Polls paint a different picture of the election outcome, with FiveThirtyEight predicting that Trump has only a two-point lead over Biden. But research suggests that prediction markets may be a “better forecaster” of political outcomes, on average. That’s because traders combine all the available information (news, polls, and expert opinion) and trade based on that combined knowledge. The economic incentive should mean that “as more experienced traders participate, the market price (probability) will change to more accurately reflect the true current probabilities,” according to Polymarket’s website.

In light of this, Polymarket is creating markets where users can bet on literally anything: “Your job is to find markets where you disagree with the current odds and profit by betting on your beliefs.

This includes a market for “Who will ask Biden to step down??” with Joe Manchin trading at 62 cents. There are markets for the number of times elon musk will tweet in a weekTaylor Swift getting engaged in 2024? The market says there is a 38% chance. Will Satoshi, the author of the Bitcoin whitepaper, have his identity proven? Perhaps unsurprisingly, traders have predicted the odds of this happening at less than 1%.

Trump’s Stocks and Cryptocurrencies Are Soaring

Another indicator that the shooting could work in Trump’s favor in the long run is the market’s reaction. For example, the cryptocurrency market rallied as Trump doubled down on his promise to be the “crypto president” if re-elected. After the shooting at 6:15 p.m. EST, Bitcoin surged 6%, surpassing $63,000 on Monday morningfor the first time in three weeks, according to data from CoinGecko. Similarly, cryptocurrency-related stocks also rose. Stocks in Monetary base Globally, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms grew 10%, 7% and 6%, respectively.

Likewise, the stock price of a Trump-owned company is on the rise. Shares of Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, rose 47% between their closing price on Friday and Monday morning, but have since fallen, now trading at $41.35. Still, that represents a 32% increase from last week. That has hypothetically added $1.8 billion to his total wealth, according to The Telegraph.

Recommended newsletter:

CEO Daily provides key context for the news leaders need to know from across the business world. Every weekday morning, more than 125,000 readers rely on CEO Daily for insights into and from within the C-suite. subscribe now.

Fuente