Markets
Ethereum at 4 thousand dollars? The approvals of spot ETFs have given analysts pause…
- According to analysts, market enthusiasm for ETH ETFs may not be as strong as many expected
- Other market observers believe that ETH could surpass $4,000 after the ETF’s launch
Doubts about US spot market demand Ethereum [ETH] ETFs have seen growth, although analysts maintain a possible launch by early July. Indeed, there has been some discussion as to whether ETH ETFs can attract demand on a similar scale to spot Bitcoin [BTC] Even ETFs.
For perspective, according to Farside Investors dataBTC-linked products have now reached +$14 billion in net flows and over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM) since their debut in January.
However, most analysts believe that ETH ETFs could only meet a fraction of the above demand. For example, Quinn Thompson, founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Lekker Capital, recently reinforced the overall market weakness view.
“The market is fading the positive impact of the upcoming ETH ETF too hard.”
Mixed opinions on ETH ETFs
JPMorgan analysts are also part of the bearish camp. They recently predicted that ETH ETFs could attract around $1-3 billion in net inflows in the second half of 2024.
Another bearish figure was shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who predicted that commodities may only catch 20% of the BTC ETF market share. His projection was based on the current demand for ETH versus BTC on the futures market.
In contrast, other analysts, such as Vetle Lunde of K33 Research, have estimated that demand for ETH ETF products could reach $4 billion in net inflows in the first five months alone.
For example, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is on the bullish side and sees the second half of 2024 as full of “tailwinds‘ for ETH demand.
A recent report from Deribit Insights also painted a bullish future based on recent options data. It noticed,
“A decent clip of September ETH 4k calls purchased ($12M premium) and July BTC June 65,000+75,000 calls have moved to greater exposure in December 75+90,000 calls, showing greater optimism at middle term.”
QCP Capital analysts reiterated said optimism based on Options data, reiterating that ETH could surpass $4,000 and retest its all-time high of $4.8,000.
“Despite the uncertainty of ETH ETF receipt, capturing 10-20% of Bitcoin ETF flows could push ETH above 4,000, approaching its peak of 4,800.”