(Bloomberg) — It’s been a banner year for digital assets, but a shift into the mainstream is making price swings less wild, diminishing a key attraction for many investors and poised to dent the growth of the biggest source of revenue for exchanges like to Coinbase. Global Inc.

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Despite recording higher-than-expected revenue and profit in the first quarter, the consumer trading volume of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange was $56 billion, compared to a peak of $177 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the height of the previous crypto bull run. Bitcoin trading volume – which fuels Coinbase’s trading fee revenue – has remained muted since the world’s largest cryptocurrency hit all-time highs in March following the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

“Volatility looks much more mature this cycle than it did in 2021,” said Alesia Haas, chief financial officer at Coinbase, during the JPMorgan Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference last week. “The volatility of Bitcoin, the volatility of Ethereum starts to arrive, what I call, on the network.”

The average volatility of digital assets fell to 57% this year from around 79% in 2021, according to researcher CCData. Greater volatility tends to attract more speculative traders.

At the May investor conference, Coinbase executives mentioned words like “maturity” and “maturation” seven times – especially when talking about the crypto market.

What’s driving all the talk about the market maturing is the fact that for both Coinbase and other exchanges, this year’s trading fee revenue is unlikely to match 2021’s surge.

Other exchanges are also predicting lower volatility this year, in part as a result of the creation of the spot Bitcoin ETF, leading to more orderly inflows and less chaos. Furthermore, the prices of tokens – including Bitcoin – are already high, meaning they simply may not be able to rise as quickly.

“The market is more mature today and is less likely to experience wild swings,” said Bobby Zagotta, CEO of Bitstamp USA. “It will still be volatile and there will still be upward momentum in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, but I don’t think it will be as explosive up and down as previous cycles.”

Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at Kraken, echoed this sentiment. “I don’t think we’re going to have many repeats of what we’ve seen in previous markets in terms of magnitude of growth,” he said in an interview. .

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Coinbase’s future is far from bleak. Net profit, for example, is expected to increase around 20 times this year compared to 2023, data compiled by Bloomberg show. But absolute revenue and net profit numbers are expected to still lag behind the 2021 peak.

The company’s outlook will depend on how long the current bull market is sustained. If it extends to 2025, John Todaro, an analyst at Needham & Co., expects Coinbase to generate more revenue. Coinbase’s ability to maintain spot market share will also be key, as its share fell to 4.18% in May from 6.5% in early 2023, according to CCData.

Still, Coinbase is now much more diversified and less dependent on trading fees than it was in 2021. The company already made about a third of its sales in the first quarter from other sources, such as stablecoin revenue share. USDC. It is also recording revenue from its Base blockchain, which debuted last year. That could be “a $300 million annual revenue opportunity,” Todaro said.

And Coinbase is already the custodian of most US spot Bitcoin ETFs. It is also listed as the custodian of five spot Ether ETFs that are close to being permitted by US regulators. Ether ETFs are not expected to be a significant revenue driver in the near term. But Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., expects them to increase Coinbase’s stature in the industry.

Some, like Lau, even argue that lower volatility makes Coinbase shares more attractive. Shares are up about 40% so far this year, although they are more than 30% below the all-time high reached in late 2021.

The maturity of the market will benefit Coinbase in the long run, “because Coinbase is diversifying away from just trading,” Lau said. “Coinbase’s revenue could become even more predictable. This means they could achieve a higher earnings multiple.”

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