Markets
Bitcoin Likely in Bear Trap Phase Before Explosive Move to the Upside, Crypto Analyst Says
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst TechDev says that Bitcoin (BTC) is probably in the middle of a bearish trap to shake off weak hands before a strong price rally.
The pseudonymous analyst shares a Bitcoin chart with his 464,000 followers on social media platform X that suggests BTC is mirroring its pre-parable 2017 price action after roughly 1,200 days of accumulation.
TechDev’s chart also incorporates the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) metric, which measures the overall sentiment of market participants by tracking the unrealized gains and losses of all coins in circulation.
Based on his chart, the analyst sees Bitcoin’s NUPL going through four different phases in a bull cycle: hope, optimism, conviction, and euphoria. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin is in the conviction phase where the major rallies of the bull run occur.
“Bitcoin.”
Source: Technical Development/X
TechDev shares another chart that shows what he believes are the 16 different phases of the Bitcoin market cycle.
He believes that BTC is currently in the “bear trap” phase where a “correction fueled by overvaluation concerns and premature fears that the cycle is over” drives prices down, just before a massive expansion into the euphoria zone.
Source: Technical Development/X
TechDev also looks at two indicators that he says have a good track record for predicting the start and end of previous Bitcoin spikes: the relative strength index (RSI) and the Chaiken Money Flow Index (CMF). The RSI is a momentum indicator while the CMF is a volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a given period.
TechDev says,
“RSI calls highs. CMF calls blow-offs.”
Source: Technical Development/X
Looking at the trader’s chart, it seems to suggest that the RSI has not yet reached a descending resistance line that has signaled the end of bull markets in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the CMF has just broken through a resistance level that has previously signaled the start of major Bitcoin rallies.
At the time of writing, the value of Bitcoin is $55,282.
Don’t miss a beat – subscribe to receive email alerts directly in your inbox
Check Price Action
Follow us on X, Facebook AND Telegram
surf Hodl Daily Mix
 
Disclaimer: The views expressed on The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their own due diligence before making high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please note that transfers and trading are at your own risk and any loss you may incur is your own responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend buying or selling cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
Image generated: DALLE3