Markets
Bitcoin (BTC) Recaptures 200-Day Average as ‘Trump Trades’ Returns After Weekend Attack
Assets tied to the likelihood of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump winning the Nov. 4 election are seeing renewed volatility following Saturday’s attempted assassination of the former president.
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 7% to $62,500 since the weekend attack, which has strengthened The probability of the pro-crypto candidate winning the election is 70% on Polymarket.
The top cryptocurrency by market value broke above its key 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a widely watched indicator of long-term trends, and a trend line that characterizes the downtrend from early June highs in a positive sign for momentum traders, CoinDesk data shows. Trump-themed Polifi tokens, which mark the intersection of politics and finance, also rose.
In recent months, Trump has changed course and embraced cryptocurrency to outdo his rival, Joe Biden, and win over the supposedly single-issue crypto community, which is seeking a more friendly regulatory environment for the sector. As such, bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have become bets on Trump’s victory. The former president has pledged to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.
“The biggest fundamental news story of the weekend was the Trump assassination attempt. Absolutely insane. This has improved the odds of a Trump presidency. Trump being the pro-crypto president should help galvanize cryptocurrency bidding,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email.
Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan (CNY) traded lower against the U.S. dollar as a potential Trump victory could lead to higher trade tariffs. Earlier this year, Trump suggested revoking China’s “most favored nation” status for trade with the United States and imposing tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. The Mexican peso (MXN) also slipped due to Trump’s fraught relations with the Latin American nation during his previous presidential reign.
Ten-year Treasury note futures prices fell, suggesting higher yields, as Trump’s return to the White House would mean more spending, tax cuts and higher budget deficits. Several investment banks are betting that a potential Trump victory it would have become more severe the yield curve currently inverted in the coming months. Historically, a sharp steepening has led to broad-based risk aversion in financial markets.
S&P 500 futures were up 0.18% at press time, signaling a positive opening on Monday, even as Asian stocks fell on disappointing economic growth figures in China. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major fiat currencies, was up 0.10% at 104.19, according to TradingView.