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Cryptocurrency prices fluctuated on Wednesday as investors analyzed comments from the Federal Reserve that provided new insight into the U.S. central bank’s fight against inflation.

Policymakers’ decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the 11th consecutive month was a foregone conclusion, based on movements in the Fed futures markets. In its most restrictive stance in more than 20 years, the Fed maintained its policy rate. reference interest in a range between 5.25% and 5.50%.

This month’s release of the so-called “dot plot,” however, suggested that U.S. central bank interlocutors have registered a notable change in financial conditions since March. The Fed, in its most recent Summary of Economic Projections, had predicted three cuts in rates until the end of the year.

The dot plot released on Wednesday suggests that Fed policymakers now think a rate cut could be more appropriate – interpreted by the market as a sign of a hard line. The projection went beyond the two rate cuts that economists had hoped the Fed might telegraph, as it aims to keep rates higher for longer in the face of a strong U.S. economy and job market.

Cryptocurrency prices rose earlier in the day on news that inflation had slowed to 3.3% in the 12 months to May. The report indicated that consumer prices for American goods and services rose slightly less last month than economists had expected.

After the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell. Just 15 minutes after the Fed’s decision, for example, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell 1.2% to around $69,000 from $69,900. Meanwhile, prices of Ethereum and Solana also fell at similar rates.

The Fed has said in recent months that it will not cut rates until it has “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed that position on Wednesday and said, “So far this year, the data has not given us that greater confidence.”

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” Powell added in a statement. “In recent months, there has been modest progress towards the Committee’s 2% inflation target.”

Before the conclusion of the Fed policy meeting, futures traders drawn in pencil a 61% probability that the Fed will cut rates in September, likely providing a boost to the US economy through lower interest rates. That number dropped to 59% after the release of Powell’s written comments.

Not long before US inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, the Fed began raising interest rates from near zero to cool a surging economy. Although inflation has declined significantly since then, Powell said Wednesday that the U.S. central bank’s quest for 2% is not over.

Powell pointed to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report, where inflation remained flat month over month in May, as a sign of potential progress. “Let me say that we welcome today’s reading and look forward to more like it,” he said.

“The Committee would be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the achievement of the Committee’s objectives,” Powell added, one of which is “maximum employment” among U.S. workers.

The price of so-called risky assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, typically faces pressure as interest rates rise and payments for holding cash and U.S. Treasury bonds become more attractive. Investors predict the opposite will happen as the Fed eases U.S. monetary conditions.

“We cannot know what the future holds, but in the meantime we have made good progress on inflation with our current position,” Powell said, adding that the Fed seeks a gradual decline in inflation and a greater balance in the economy. the work market. “We’re making good progress here.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward

Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to add one more quote from Powell.

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