Markets
Biden’s Election Prospects Slump on Crypto Markets After Obama’s Concerns Are Raised
US President Joe Biden’s prospects of running for a second presidential term are fading, according to cryptocurrency prediction market bettors Polymarketas speculation about the incumbent commander-in-chief’s mounting health problems cast doubt on his fitness to hold the country’s top post.
A Polymarket betting pool holding more than $135 million in cryptocurrency shows that 60% of traders are betting that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will win the Democratic presidential nomination by August 21. By comparison, just 28% of users are betting on Biden as the leading candidate.
Meanwhile, about 10% of bettors are betting on other potential candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Polymarket data shows. The odds of Harris securing the nomination jumped to 64% Thursday morning.
Bettors’ declining confidence in Biden’s ability to secure the Democratic presidential nomination marks a stark contrast to their previous predictions. Last week, bettors had pegged Biden’s chances of running for reelection at about 74%, according to a screenshot of Polymarket data. shared on Twitter (aka X) from Coinbase engineer Yuga.eth, aka.
The surprising reversal of these probabilities occurs at a time relationship from the Washington Post that President Barack Obama expressed doubts about the “viability” of Biden’s second presidential run to his political allies, just a day after Biden revealed he had been diagnosed with COVID-19.
The diagnosis came amid widespread public speculation about the 80-year-old president’s mental fitness to run for office, following Biden’s poor performance during a public debate with Republican challenger Donald Trump last month.
Prediction markets have occasionally proven to be more accurate barometers of voter behavior than traditional polling methods. PredictIt, a leading prediction market, advertised In a public statement, its traders correctly predicted the electoral college results in seven key states during the 2020 US presidential election.
Meanwhile, many political commentators criticized that year’s pre-election polling data for overstating Biden’s lead over Trump, according to a relationship from the nonpartisan think tank Pew Research Center. However, experts remain divided over whether prediction markets can consistently predict the outcomes of future events.
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.