How many times have you seen Bitcoin unexpectedly plummet, just an hour or a day after buying a new stack? Everyone has faced this frustration, thinking, “If I had known, I would have bought it later for a cheaper price.” The good news is that some indicators can help predict these recessions.

While some indicators such as the MVRV Z-score and Pi Cycle Top help identify market tops, they do not provide information about short-term downward movements. This is where the price realized by the trader on the network comes into play.

The network marketer realized the price graphic highlights a clear pattern in Bitcoin price movements from 2018 to 2024. Each time Bitcoin’s price falls below the trader’s realized price on the network, it tends to fall further. On average, the price drops -27% in 43 days.

Furthermore, the realized price often serves as a dynamic support or resistance level. When the price of Bitcoin approaches this upper line, it sometimes bounces back, using it as support. On the other hand, when the price breaks above the realized price, it often fails to break through and falls further, using the line as resistance.

To understand why realized price is such a powerful indicator, it’s important to understand its underlying concept. Realized price represents the average price at which all current Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. When the market price drops below realized price, it indicates that many holders are subject to unrealized losses, which can create selling pressure and lead to further price declines.

Traders can use the realized price as a reference to predict potential downward movements. By closely monitoring when the Bitcoin price crosses the realized price, traders can anticipate periods of elevated selling pressure and prepare accordingly.

But the question may arise: if someone knows that Bitcoin is going to fall, when should they buy back?

Firstly, you need to understand that consistently selling at the top or buying at the bottom is almost impossible. A trader may get lucky once, but repeating this feat consistently is unlikely; otherwise, many would become very rich very quickly. However, you can analyze the price structure in the chart of prices realized on the network. When the price of Bitcoin stops falling and starts showing an upward trend, it indicates a potential buyback opportunity.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can clearly reveal the downward and upward trends. MACD is a tool that helps traders understand whether an asset’s price is trending up or down. It uses two lines: the MACD line and the signal line. When the MACD line crosses the signal line, it may be a good time to buy. When it is below the signal line, it may be a good time to sell. The MACD also features red and green bars, known as a histogram, which represent the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. Green bars indicate increasing bullish momentum, while red bars indicate increasing bearish momentum.

By using the on-chain trader realized price and MACD together, traders can gain valuable insights into Bitcoin price movements. The combination allows traders to identify potential downward trends with high probability and anticipate the best times to re-enter the market.

Fuente

Short-term trends appear a bit choppy for the cryptocurrency market and the potential for a pause remains persistent. After navigating the red zone, Bitcoin has now drifted into the green zone, trading above $61,500 levels.

Analyst Perspective on Price Range

Crypto World Analyst Josh said Bitcoin has been stuck in a huge sideways range lately, fluctuating between approximately $73,000 and $56,000. Historically, these lulls often precede major price fireworks. So brace yourselves — some serious action could be just around the corner.

Technical Analysis Insights

Looking at the 3-day chart, the analyst noticed that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50. Over the past two years, whenever this happened, it often ended up being a good time to buy Bitcoin, especially if you are thinking long term.

Now looking at the daily chart, things get a little bearish. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been flexing its muscles, and that usually spells trouble for Bitcoin in the short term. But here’s a twist: the daily RSI recently reached oversold levels. It’s as if a red light turns green for a brief pause in the downward slide.

Important levels to watch? Well, between $60,000 and $61,000 is where Bitcoin appears to be holding right now. But drop below $56,000 and things can get ugly. On the other hand, if Bitcoin can break above $63,000, $67,000 or even $72,000 to $74,000, the currency could see some serious fireworks again.

Looking at key technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Bollinger Band Width, he noted that over the last day, these indicators showed minimal changes. This lack of movement suggests that no significant, volatile changes have yet begun, especially over the broader period where such movements have historically ranged between 20% to 30% or more over several weeks.

Read too: Crypto Market Crash: These Altcoins Are Outperforming Bitcoin

Fuente

Investing.com – The price of Bitcoin was little changed on Wednesday and suffered sharp losses last week as fears of selling pressure from distributions from defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox weighed on sentiment.

Dollar strength weighed on broader cryptocurrency prices as traders remained broadly tilted towards the greenback in anticipation of key US inflation data this Friday. A readout on first quarter economic growth is also available.

rose 0.9% in the last 24 hours to $61,597.0 at 01:30 ET (05:30 GMT). The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell to $59,000 earlier this week as risk appetite remained largely negative.

Mt. Gox liquidators say Bitcoin sales will begin in July

Liquidators of defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox, which collapsed due to a hack in 2014, said this week they will begin distributing tokens stolen from customers in the first week of July.

Liquidators earlier this year mobilized around $9 billion worth of Bitcoin from cold wallets – an event that was expected to precede a possible distribution. They did not specify in this week’s announcement what the scale of the distributions will be.

Customers who receive their stolen assets will now do so at a much higher price, which could lead them to offload sales. Such a scenario presents enormous selling pressure on Bitcoin.

which will also be distributed by Mt Gox, also suffered heavy losses this week.

The token was already under pressure from reports suggesting that German authorities had also begun selling thousands of Bitcoins confiscated from a piracy website.

Broader sentiment towards cryptocurrencies was already under pressure due to waning risk appetite as traders turned to more stable assets such as the dollar amid fears of high US interest rates.

Cryptocurrency investment products, especially Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, were experiencing two weeks of large capital outflows.

Crypto Price Today: Altcoins See Some Bids as Bitcoin Sentiment Worsens

Among the broader cryptocurrency markets, altcoins posted some gains this week as the potential for increased selling pressure on Bitcoin spurred some flows into other cryptocurrency assets.

The world’s No. 2 token rose 0.2% to $3,382.25 while adding 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.

fell behind, falling 1%.

Among meme tokens, it rose 1.5%, while it added 2.1%.

Fuente

LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 5: Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks, speaks from the balcony of… [+] Embassy of Ecuador, where he continues to seek asylum following an extradition request from Sweden in 2012, on February 5, 2016, in London, England. The United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention insisted that Mr. Assange’s detention must end. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)

Getty Images

It’s a global headline – Julian Assange, former editor-in-chief of Wikileaks, got a plea deal and his sentence was commuted to time served. His next step is to travel to Saipan and then return to his homeland, Australia. However, the financial burden on him is far from over, despite five years in prison and a deal that did not fully forgive him. His fiancée, Stella Assange, revealed that this journey to freedom will personally cost Julian a staggering $520,000 USD. The family is urgently appealing for funds to cover travel expenses and support his recovery after a grueling ordeal.

While every contribution counts and anyone looking to donate should look at the link above as an option, some noted that the donation platform only accepted credit/debit cards and bank payments and asked if Bitcoin was available.
Bitcoin
address where they could donate. Now, a BTCPay POS Configuration allows you to generate on-chain and Lightning Network invoices for Assange’s campaign. His brother, Gabriel, who I had already interviewed, configure this. I confirmed the address with the same account I conducted multiple interviews with, including phone calls. I confirmed that they received a small trial donation by generating an invoice on BTCPay Instance they sent me. When generating an invoice, you can pay by copying the generated LNUrl or scanning the QR code from a Bitcoin/Lightning wallet. Gabriel Shipton, brother of Julian Assange, posted about this BTCPay server instance here.

Author screenshot

Author screenshot

BTCPay has become a preferred way to process payments when people want to fully benefit from Bitcoin’s resilient decentralization and censorship-proof properties. It shows the power of Bitcoin outside the custody of big banks and ETFs. When HSBC froze protesters’ bank accounts, the media outlet that broke the news, the Hong Kong Free Press, used BTCPay before accepting Bitcoin donations. O Human Rights Foundation also uses BTCPay to raise funds.

Unsurprisingly, there is a new option to donate funds in Bitcoin, as Julian Assange and his family have been part of the Bitcoin tapestry for a long time. Julian talked to Satoshi about accepting donations in Bitcoin for Wikileaks. It was timely as PayPal froze funds intended for Wikileaks. Julian has also spoken about his deep fascination with and written about Bitcoin, for example in a Reddit AMA, where he wrote: “There’s a lot about Bitcoin in my book – about my thoughts on it and WikiLeaks’ history with it. Eric Schmidt and I talked a little about it, and I’ve also included lots of notes to expand on my views. It’s a fascinating and complex subject, so I can’t cover everything.” Julian also claimed to have gained 50,000% return on Bitcoin in 2017. Since then, the price of Bitcoin has increased from the beginning of 2017 (about $1,000) to now about 60x (about $60,000).

His family also used smart techniques how to inscribe Wikileaks war logs on the Bitcoin blockchain to continue his legacy. Now that Julian is out of prison, this legacy of involvement with Bitcoin can continue. Bitcoiners can now support Julian and his family by donating to a BTCPay Instance in Bitcoin on-chain or Lightning Network. With a donation of 8 Bitcoin (worth around US$500,000) registered to an address on the network Posted by Stella AssangeJulian’s fiancée, it appears that the Bitcoin community is determined to support Julian and his family.

Fuente