1 Unstoppable Cryptocurrency Rising 5,300% by 2030, Says Cathie Wood

Cathie Wood is the head of Ark Investment Management, which manages 14 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on technological innovations. They include everything from artificial intelligence (AI) to electric vehicles to cryptocurrency.

Ark is extremely bullish on the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). The company’s official research suggests the coin could generate a 2,000% gain by 2030, but Wood herself just released a new price target that hints at a potential upside of over 5,300%.

Bitcoin is currently trading at an all-time high and investors are more excited than ever about its prospects, but are Wood’s predictions realistic?

Image source: Getty Images.

Bitcoin is a unique asset

Bitcoin is often seen as a replacement for traditional money. It is not governed by any person or institution, and the blockchain it is built on is an accurate and transparent system of record. But its price is incredibly volatile; Bitcoin lost 65% of its value in 2022 and has since gained around 325% from its low point that year. As a result, it is too unpredictable to become a medium of exchange for most consumers and businesses.

Instead, many investors view Bitcoin as a store of value – like a digital version of gold – and it has outperformed every other major asset class over the past five years:

Bitcoin Price Chart

The investment thesis behind Bitcoin is relatively simple. The supply is limited to 21 million coins, which are paid out to miners who use powerful computers to add new blocks to the blockchain. A halving is triggered every 210,000 new blocks, which halves the reward for mining Bitcoin. Estimates suggest that the last Bitcoin will be mined around 2140.

Since supply is capped, demand alone drives prices up. There are almost 50 million wallets containing whole or partial bitcoins. This figure is close to a record level. Additionally, 2023 was one of the most active years for portfolio creation, which is a good indicator of demand. Theoretically, Bitcoin’s limited supply will ensure prices rise as long as people continue to open new wallets to purchase the cryptocurrency.

However, this alone might not be enough for Bitcoin to generate the astronomical gains touted by Ark and Wood.

Ark’s Catalysts for a Bitcoin Price Rise

Ark highlights eight potential sources of demand for Bitcoin that could drive its price higher by 2030:

1. Corporate cash flow: Ark believes that companies will eventually hold between 0% (bearish scenario) and 5% (bullish scenario) of their cash reserves in Bitcoin.

2. Discount asset: Bitcoin could account for between 5% and 25% of all non-commercial money transfers.

3. Nation-state treasury: Treasury departments around the world could hold between 0% and 5% of their assets in Bitcoin.

4. Emerging Markets Currency: Bitcoin could become the main currency of some developing countries. El Salvador has already adopted it as legal tender.

5. Economic establishment network: Bitcoin could eliminate a number of fees imposed by banks and financial institutions, capturing between 1% and 10% of US bank settlement volume.

6. Seizure Resistant Asset: Between 1% and 5% of the world’s wealth held by wealthy individuals could be stored in Bitcoin to protect it from the government.

7. Institutional investment: Banks and financial institutions could place between 1% and 6.5% of their assets in Bitcoin because they believe its value will appreciate further.

8. Digital gold: Between 20% and 50% of the money investors normally allocate to gold could potentially be placed in Bitcoin, thanks to its strong performance and portability.

The story continues

Here’s how high Ark thinks Bitcoin can rise by 2030, based on the demand generated by these eight catalysts:

• Bear case: $258,500, which is about a 270% increase from the current price of around $69,000.

• Base case: $682,800, an increase of 880%.

• Case of the bull: $1,480,000, an increase of 2,400%.

But Cathie Wood has just doubled the bet

Wood spoke at the Bitcoin Investor Day conference in New York last week, where she said Bitcoin could actually eclipse Ark’s 2030 price target of $1.48 million and climb to 3 .8 million dollars. The 5,300% surge could be due to the subsequent adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which gained approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January.

So far, the 10 licensed ETF operators – including Ark – manage more than $58 billion in assets in their Bitcoin funds, and this figure is growing. Wood says that if institutional investors allocated just over 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, that alone would be enough to justify a price of $3.8 million.

Wood believes Bitcoin still has a way to go in terms of upside. She believes cryptocurrency is the key to an Internet-based means of transaction that eliminates toll takers like banks and financial institutions, which collect fees almost every time money is transferred.

Are Wood’s predictions realistic?

Past performance does not predict future results, so there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will continue to outperform other asset classes, let alone grow more than 50x.

The cryptocurrency would have a market capitalization of $74.7 trillion if it reached a price of $3.8 million, making it nearly three times more valuable than the U.S. economy in terms of gross domestic product and 23 times more valuable than the largest company in the world (Microsoft).

This seems unlikely to me. It makes sense to view Bitcoin as a store of value, and perhaps one day it could have a market cap similar to that of gold, which currently stands at $14.6 trillion. This would result in a 10x return in Bitcoin from here, bringing it to $743,500, which is slightly higher. Arkthe base case estimate.

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Anthony DiPizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool holds positions and recommends Bitcoin and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

1 Unstoppable Cryptocurrency Rising 5,300% by 2030, Says Cathie Wood was originally published by The Motley Fool

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