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What is the cause of the fall in the price of Bitcoin?
What is the cause of the fall in the price of Bitcoin?
The market is red again.
Over the past week, Bitcoin lost almost $5,000 of its value, falling from a comfortable level above $66,000 to hovering around the $61,000 mark (at the time of writing). This sudden drop has left investors and analysts confused.
This sharp decline coincided with a significant change in market sentiment. THE Crypto Fear and Greed Index went from 60 to 49 in just 13 days, going from “greed” to the edge of “neutral” territory.
The sudden drop in prices and change in sentiment has left many wondering about the underlying causes.
Several key events in the crypto space appear to have influenced this market movement.
Let’s dive into the details of what’s happening in the Bitcoin market and explore the factors behind this recent drop.
Reason #1: The German government’s sale of Bitcoin
Crypto market saw significant turbulence following German government announcement preparing to liquidate a significant holding in Bitcoin.
Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) held around 50,000 BTC, seized from a hacking site in 2013, now valued at more than $3 billion.
This news, revealed a few days ago, likely triggered Bitcoin’s initial decline from $66,000 to $63,000 – as can be seen on CoinMarketCap.
The prospect that such an amount of Bitcoin could enter the market has understandably caused concern among investors.
Reports suggest that German authorities have already started the process, selling 3,000 BTC in recent days. However, most of the heritage (47,000 BTC) remains for sale.
The government appears to be taking a measured approach to minimize the impact on the market, but investor concern persists.
Reason n°2: the big players are slowing down
The second major factor behind the recent Bitcoin price decline concerns the biggest fish in the market – “whales”.
Here’s what’s happening: The whales have suddenly become much less active. Data from Feeling shows that large transactions (over $100,000) fell by 42% in just a few days. This is a significant behavioral change.
So why is this important? Well, when whales slow down their trade, it often signals caution. This whale behavior is particularly interesting because it occurs right after a period of strong sales.
What does this mean for the market? It could be that these large investors are waiting to see if prices will fall further before starting to buy again. Or they could refrain from selling more to avoid driving prices down too quickly.
Either way, when the whales go silent, it’s often a sign that the market is at a crossroads. Their next movements could give us clues about the direction that the price of Bitcoin could take in the weeks to come.
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Reason #3: Mt. Gox returns with refunds
The defunct exchange has resurfaced and shaken things up once again. More than a decade after its collapse, Mt. Gox announced that it would begin repaying its creditors – and the news reverberated through the Bitcoin market.
Mt. Gox Rehabilitation Administrator Nobuaki Kobayashi announced that Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash reimbursements would begin in early July.
Why is this a big deal?
Well, Mt. Gox was once the largest crypto exchange before its spectacular shutdown in 2014.
This is not a small change we are talking about. The three Mt. Gox wallets combined hold 141,686 BTC, worth approximately $8.71 billion.
The fear is simple: As creditors finally get their hands on their long-lost Bitcoin, many may rush to cash out. This potential flood of Bitcoin hitting the market has investors on alert.
The impact was almost immediate. Bitcoin price plunged to $61,060, a 6.5% drop in just 24 hours. Although it has since recovered slightly to around $61,300, the market remains nervous.
It’s not just Bitcoin that’s feeling the heat. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was also hit, falling 9% following the announcement.
Although the reimbursement process is expected to begin soon, it should be noted that it could extend over several months. The repayment deadline had previously been extended until October 2024, which gave the market some breathing space.
Reason #4: domino effect
The recent drop in Bitcoin price was not solely due to external factors. An important internal market mechanism played a crucial role in amplifying this decline: cascading liquidations in the derivatives market.
Think of it as crypto’s version of a domino effect, and it’s in full swing over the past 24 hours.
Here’s what happened: When the price of Bitcoin started to fall, it started a chain reaction in the derivatives market. According to data from Change machine$311.3 million in crypto positions were liquidated in just 24 hours.
Of this $305.89 million, $275.75 million were long positions. In short, this means that the vast majority of these liquidations affected traders who were betting on an increase in the price of the crypto.
This cascade of liquidations isn’t the root cause of Bitcoin’s price decline, but it certainly hasn’t helped matters.
As the market grapples with these issues, it is clear that several factors are at play. The German government’s Bitcoin moves, changes in whale behavior, Mt. Gox redemption plans, and cascading liquidations have all contributed. to recent price volatility.
While short-term fluctuations can be destabilizing, they also provide valuable information about market dynamics. As the dust settles, market participants will be closely watching how these factors evolve and influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks and months to come.
News
Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products
Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)
Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.
Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.
Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices
The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.
A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.
Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF
The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.
The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.
The story continues
Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus
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FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun
Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.
Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.
At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.
Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.
Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.
Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.
Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”
FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”
“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”
“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.
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News
Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
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Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.
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Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.
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10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.
BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.
Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.
Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.
Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.
10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.
The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.
“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”
The story continues
UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.
News
The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse
Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.
Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”
This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.
Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.
Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.
And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.
The story continues
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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