Markets
very positive forecast on the price of Ethereum
Yesterday VanEck published a very positive prediction on the price of Ethereum.
In fact, they declared that they have raised their 2030 target to $22,000, thanks in particular to the news on the spot ETH ETF, progress in terms of scaling and on-chain data.
We increased our ETH price target for 2030 to $22,000, influenced by Ether ETF news, scaling progress, and our readout of onchain data. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of ETH and BTC in both traditional and crypto-only portfolios to achieve optimal returns. @Matteo_Sigel @Patrick_Bush_VE…
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) June 5, 2024
VanEck: Ethereum price prediction
THE current price of ETH it is around $3,800, and in fact it has been fluctuating around this level for about three months.
In the last three months, i.e. after the rise in February which took it from 2,300 to 4,000 dollars, it was above the current level only at the beginning of March, while from mid-March to mid-May it dropped to 2,800 dollars.
The year, however, started right around $2,300, so for now 2024 can be considered a substantially positive year.
Despite this, the all-time high of 2021 is still far away, because it was recorded near $4,900, so right now the target for the current cycle seems to be $5,000, in the medium term.
However, we must not forget that before the last big bullrun, i.e. in October 2020, its price was only 400 dollars, so the current price is already practically ten times higher. Furthermore, the previous cycle peak, recorded in January 2018, was below $1,500, which is less than half of current levels.
All this has allowed some analysts to project the price of ETH as high as $10,000 during the current cycle, and this makes VanEck’s prediction less bold than it might appear at first glance.
VanEck’s predictions on the price of Ethereum
The long analysis on the price of Ethereum shared by VanEck aims not only to hypothesize how the price of ETH could evolve in the next six years, but also and above all to identify the optimal allocation of the investment portfolio in this cryptocurrency.
The analysis was conducted by Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research, Patrick Bush, senior digital asset investment analyst, and Denis Zinoviev, associate product manager.
The starting point is precisely the Spot ETF on ETHwhich is expected to be nearing completion in early July.
This would allow financial advisors and institutional investors to hold ETH with the safety of qualified custodians, and benefit from the advantages inherent to ETFs in terms of price and liquidity without having to worry about the custody of the tokens.
The second fundamental point is the consideration that Ethereum The network will likely continue its rapid growth, particularly regarding its market share compared to traditional financial market participants and Big Tech.
It is even hypothesized that it could attract 66 billion dollars, which consequently should bring its market capitalization to 2,200 billion dollars by 2030, compared to the current 460, and therefore to an ETH price of $22,000.
It is worth noting that at this moment Bitcoin capitalizes around 1,400 billion, and the totality cryptocurrency market does not exceed 2,800.
This is therefore a very optimistic forecast, but it does not refer to the current cycle.
Cryptocurrency market cycles
Cryptocurrency markets follow a cycle of approximately 4 years dictated by the cycle Bitcoin halving.
Ethereum was born in 2015, during the second cycle of Bitcoin and just over a year before the second BTC halving.
The one that occurred in April this year is only the third BTC halving experienced by Ethereum, with the first experienced just over a year after launch.
So the first full four-year cycle for Ethereum was the one that started in 2016 and ended in 2020, and it was within that cycle that it recorded an all-time high of $1,500 in January 2018.
The almost $4,900 reached in 2021 therefore represents the historic high of only the second complete cycle of the crypto markets experienced by Ethereum.
Furthermore, between the historical high of the first complete cycle and that of the second, the price of ETH marked a x3.2, and this seems to theoretically justify a rise even above $10,000 in this third complete cycle.
At this point the prediction of $22,000 as the maximum price for the fourth complete cycle of the crypto markets experienced by Ethereum does not seem so far-fetched, while still remaining decidedly very optimistic.
Portfolio allocation
Given all these considerations, VanEck’s extensive analysis suggests that adding a modest cryptocurrency allocation (up to 6%) to a traditional 60/40 portfolio could substantially improve the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, with a relatively lower impact on drawdown.
Within this cryptocurrency allocation up to a maximum of 6% of the portfolio 60/40, they state that
The allocation that provided the best risk-adjusted returns is 70% BTC and 30% ETH.
It should be noted that the assumption of allocating up to 6% to cryptocurrencies is explicitly stated as a probably good assumption, while the 70/30 split refers only to past performance. This seems to suggest that cryptocurrency markets may change their overall trend in the coming years.
VanEck analysts also add that investors should still consider their personal risk appetite before making such decisions, because cryptocurrencies remain a high-risk investment.
However, I do not deny that it is precisely the data that suggests that a balanced inclusion of BTC and ETH within investment portfolios can offer enormous advantages in terms of improving returns compared to the incremental risk introduced.
However, it is necessary to highlight that VanEck has both BTC and ETH in its portfolio, as explicitly stated at the beginning of the analysis, and that it promotes some of its crypto derivative investment products such as ETFs.
Markets
Bitcoin, Ethereum See Red as Markets Crash on Volatility
Bitcoin AND Etherealalong with the rest of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, appear to be in hibernation on Thursday morning.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin Price is still below $65,000 and 2.2% lower than it was this time yesterday, according to CoinGecko data. Things are worse for the Ethereum Pricewhich is 3.7% lower than 24 hours ago at $3,185.22. The drop in ETH’s price is identical to that of Lido Staked Ethereum (stETH), a liquid staking token for Ethereum.
In recent days, falling prices have led to the liquidation of derivative contracts worth $225 million, according to Coin glassAnd about half of that, about $100 million, was liquidated in the last 12 hours.
When a trader is liquidated, it means that their position in the market has been forcibly closed by an exchange or brokerage due to a margin call or insufficient collateral. Margin is especially important when it comes to leveraged positions, which allow traders to control a multiple of their deposit, such as opening a $10,000 position with only $1,000 in their account.
Now that Bitcoin has been in the red for three days in a row, there is a chance that the world’s oldest and largest cryptocurrency could sink even further, BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said in a note shared with Decrypt.
“Bitcoin has closed in the red for three days in a row, with one-way trading showing limited resistance from bulls. Ethereum had a slightly positive Monday with strong resistance from bears who have won the last two days,” he wrote. “This momentum could take BTC to the $62,500 resistance or even the $58,000 territories.”
Looking ahead, Fournier said BRN’s strategy will be to “reduce exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum and find a better entry point after the dip.”
This is despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments yesterday on interest rates being widely regarded as accommodating and indicative of FOMC rate cuts in September.
Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital said the rally in stocks, which sent the S&P 500 up 1.6% from Wednesday’s close, was not felt in cryptocurrency markets.
“Cryptocurrencies have seen a broad sell-off overnight and into this morning,” the firm wrote in a trading note. “The market remains poised as traders pay close attention to daily ETH ETF outflows and further supply pressure from Mt Gox and the US government.”
Meanwhile, the other top-ranking coins are showing mixed performance.
Solana (SOL) is down 7.2% since yesterday to $169.13. Things are even worse for its most popular meme coins. In the past 24 hours, the most popular meme coins Dogwifhat (WIF) are down 12% and BONK (BONK) is down 9%, according to CoinGecko data.
Their dog-themed competitor, Ethereum OG Dogecoin (DOGE), the only meme coin in Coingecko’s top 10, is down nearly 4% since yesterday and is currently trading at $0.1205.
XRP (XRP) dropped to $0.608, which is 7% lower than it was at this time yesterday.
Binance’s BNB Coin (BNB) has kept pace with BTC and is currently trading at $571, down 2.4% from yesterday. Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network, is down just 0.4% over the past day.
This leaves the stablecoins USDC (USDC) and Tether (USDT), both of which are stable as they maintain their 1:1 ratio with the US dollar.
Markets
XRP Market Activity Drops During Ripple-SEC Talks: Price Steady
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold another closed-door meeting with Ripple on Thursday, as the market hopes for a possible resolution to the legal battle between the two entities.
However, the cryptocurrency market remains relatively bearish, with the price and trading volume of XRP down in the last 24 hours.
Ripple holders take no risk
At press time, XRP is trading at $0.60. The altcoin’s price has dropped 6% over the past 24 hours. During that time, trading volume was $27 million, down 27%.
The SEC met before with the digital payment company on July 25. While the outcome of that meeting remains unknown, the Sunshine Act Notice for Thursday’s meeting includes one additional topic of discussion from the July 25 closed meeting: the instituting and resolving injunctive relief. That has market participants speculating whether a settlement is imminent.
In an exclusive interview with BeinCrypto, Ryan Lee, Lead Analyst at Bitget Research, noted that:
“This meeting will discuss possible resolution options for the Ripple Lawsuit. The founder of Ripple Labs said that a legal settlement could be announced soon. If an official settlement plan is released, it could positively impact XRP’s price movement.”
However, an assessment of XRP’s price movements on a 4-hour chart shows a spike in bearish bias as the market awaits the outcome of this crucial meeting. Its Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator readings show that its MACD line (blue) has crossed below its signal line (orange).
XRP 4 Hours Analysis. Source: Trading View
Traders use this indicator to gauge price trends, momentum, and potential buying and selling opportunities in the market. When an asset’s MACD is set this way, it is a bearish signal that suggests selling activity is outweighing buying momentum.
Additionally, the altcoin relative strength index (RSI), at 46.08, is currently below its neutral 50 line and in a downtrend. This indicator measures overbought and oversold market conditions for an asset.
To know more: How to Buy XRP and Everything You Need to Know
XRP 4 Hours Analysis. Source: Trading View
At 43.83 at the time of writing, XRP’s RSI suggests a growing preference among the market participants for tokin distribution.
XRP Price Prediction: Derivatives Traders Exit Market
The XRP derivatives market has also seen a decline in trading activity over the past 24 hours. According to Coinglass, derivatives trading volume has plummeted 18% and open interest has dropped 10% during that period.
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as options or futurethat have not yet been resolved. When it drops, traders close their positions without opening new ones. This is a bearish signal that reflects a lack of confidence in any potential positive price movement.
According to Lee, the outcome of the meeting with the SEC “would have a significant impact on the price movement of the token.” If the outcome is favorable, the price of the token could rise towards $0.75 in August.
To know more: Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
XRP 4 Hours Analysis. Source: Trading View
On the other hand, if no favorable resolutions are reached, the price could plummet to $0.50.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto strives to provide accurate and unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and conditions, Privacy PolicyAND Disclaimers They have been updated.
Markets
Bitcoin’s Dominance Hits Three-Year High, But Analysts Say Altcoins Are Ready to Rebound
Bitcoin is now the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market, surpassing 53% of the total cryptocurrency market, a stronger share than it has been in the past three years.
Bitcoin’s market cap now stands at $1.27 trillion, second according to CoinGecko data. In contrast, the total cryptocurrency market cap is $2.43 trillion, with Ethereum occupying 15.9% of the market, worth $389 billion.
Bitcoin’s rise to dominance this year is unusual, as altcoins typically do better than Bitcoin in a bull market. While meme coins made a strong comeback during Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs earlier this year, the so-called “wealth effect” It has not been appreciated as much by mid-range coins, such as Ethereum and Cardano.
“ETF flows fundamentally alter market dynamics,” he wrote Meltem Demirors, former chief strategy officer at CoinShares, tweeted Wednesday: “BTC gains no longer translate to alts and the longer tail of crypto.”
Bitcoin’s takeover has continued even as the market cap of Tether (USDT) continues to grow, the world’s largest stablecoin and the third-largest cryptocurrency after BTC and ETH. Stablecoins are backed by fiat currencies and are excluded from some measures of Bitcoin dominance due to fundamentally different value models.
The surge continued to pace even after the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs last week, which ironically culminated in a news sell-off event, and net outflows from new investment products since they were launched. This went against the predictions of K33 Search so far, which predicted that ETFs would catalyze ETH’s growth over the next five months.
Despite the poorer performance of the alts, there is reason to believe that they are ready to bounce back very soon.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Tuesday that whales are “preparing for the next altcoin rally,” as limit buy orders for assets other than BTC and ETH are on the rise.
The executive shared a chart showing how the “cumulative difference between purchase volume and sales volume” has increased in recent months.
“The indicator measures the difference between buy and sell orders over a year,” CryptoQuant told Decrypt. A buy/sell order is a pre-set request to buy or sell a cryptocurrency if it hits a certain price level, which creates resistance and support levels.
“If the trend is up, it means that more people are placing buy orders, showing strong interest in buying,” CryptoQuant said.
By Ryan-Ozawa.
Markets
XRP and SOL Retrace as BTC Price Drops to 2-Week Lows (Market Watch)
After Monday’s crash, in which BTC fell by several thousand dollars, the scenario has repeated itself once again in the last 12 hours, with the asset falling to a 2-week low of $63,300.
Alt coins followed suit, with most of the market in the red today. SOL and XRP lead the way from the higher cap alts.
BTC Drops To $63.3K
After a violent Thursday last week, when BTC crashed to $63,400, the asset went on the offensive over the weekend and surged above $69,000 on Saturday, as the community prepared for Donald Trump’s appearance at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
His speech was followed by more volatility before the cryptocurrency settled around $67,500 on Sunday. Monday started off rather optimistically for the bulls as bitcoin hit a 7-week high of $70,000.
However, he failed to maintain his run and conquer that level decisively. On the contrary, he was rejected bad and dropped to $66,400 by the end of Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday were less eventful as BTC remained still around $66,500.
The last 12 hours or so have brought another crash. Bears have pushed the leading digital asset down hard, which has fallen to a 2-week low of $63,300 (on Bitstamp), leaving over $200 million in liquidations.
Despite the current rebound to $64,500, BTC’s market cap has fallen to $1.270 trillion, but its dominance over alts is recovering and has reached 52.6%.
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 01.08.2024. Source: TradingView
The Alts are back in red
Ripple’s native token has been at the forefront of the market challenge in recent days as pumped up to a multi-month high of over $0.66. However, its run was also interrupted and XPR fell by more than 6% in the last day to $0.6.
The other big loser among the larger-cap alternatives is SOL, which has lost 8% of its value and is now struggling to get below $170.
The rest of this altcoin cohort is also in the red, with ETH, DOGE, BNB, AVAX, ADA, SHIB, and LINK all seeing drops between 2 and 5%.
The total cryptocurrency market cap lost another $70 billion overnight, falling below $2.4 trillion today on CG.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto SPECIAL OFFER (sponsored)
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