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Trump begins to move the markets

Financial Block Staff

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Trump begins to move the markets

Donald Trump has had a surprisingly strong summer, which, for now, increases the chances that he will win a second term.

This is why financial markets are waking up to the “Trump trade,” with diverse implications for stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, interest rates and inflation.

Trump’s surge in popularity began with the June 27 presidential debate, in which President Joe Biden’s blunders raised more questions than ever about the incumbent’s age and stamina. Since then, a growing number of Democrats have called on Biden to step aside and let Vice President Kamala Harris or another younger Democrat take on Trump.

Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 and nominated the first millennial to a national ticket by choosing J.D. Vance as his vice presidential running mate. Former Trump adversaries lined up behind the former president at the Republican convention, an unusual show of unity in an otherwise divided party.

Trump himself appears to be moving toward the center, perhaps in an effort to win over swing voters and business supporters. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, he sought to allay Wall Street fears about a chaotic second term. He said he would likely keep Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his job through the end of his term in 2026, “especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.” That means he would have to cut interest rates, but only during Trump’s presidency, not in the fall, when that could help Biden.

Trump has tried to reassure investors that the new tariffs would not cause unusual inflation, without explaining how he plans to do so. He has even suggested that he would consider appointing Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, as Treasury secretary, which would put a Wall Street figure in the job, if Dimon accepts.

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), speaks at the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan, New York, U.S., April 23, 2024. REUTERS/Mike Segar

Trump’s Treasury Secretary? Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks at the Economic Club of New York. (REUTERS/Mike Segar) (REUTERS / Reuters)

Election scenarios are now pushing earnings and inflation out of investors’ top concerns. “Animal spirits have taken on a whole new dimension because of the growing sense that Donald Trump is going to win,” economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research wrote to clients on July 17. “No wonder investors are frothing with rage.”

Betting markets, which can be misleading, now give Trump a 66% chance of winning, according to the RealClearPolitics AverageThis suggests that the chances of not just a Trump victory, but also a Republican landslide in which the GOP also wins both houses of Congress, giving it unified control of the government, are increasing.

That would open the door to more corporate tax cuts, which Democrats would likely block if they controlled at least one chamber of Congress. Rosenberg sees the GOP sweep as contributing to the recent rotation of investors out of tech stocks and into smaller companies considered value stocks, on the theory that more tax cuts would help smaller stocks catch up in value to so-called value stocks. The Magnificent Seven.

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Cryptocurrencies have also benefited from Trump’s growing fortune. Trump, once skeptical of cryptocurrencies, is now pledging to end government efforts to regulate crypto Bitcoin surged $1,000 in the first hour after Trump was killed in the July 13 shooting, as buyers bet that the failed assassination would boost Trump’s chances of being elected. Over the next four days, bitcoin rose another $4,500. Most other cryptocurrencies followed bitcoin higher.

But the prospects for a second Trump presidency are not entirely optimistic.

For example, Trump’s plans to raise import tariffs and deport undocumented immigrants from the country are both inflationary, because they would raise the prices of imported goods and likely also increase labor costs by making workers scarcer in some sectors.

That could reverse the considerable progress of the past two years, with inflation falling sharply from its 2022 peak, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates as early as September. Any signs of a resurgence in inflation — including possible Trump policies — could interfere with that and keep interest rates elevated. Some analysts believe that interest rates are already higher than they otherwise would be because Investors begin to factor in the impact of Trump’s inflationary policies.

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Investors are also looking for specific sectors or companies that could benefit or suffer from a second Trump term. In the Bloomberg interview, for example, Trump suggested he would not help Taiwan if China attacked, even though Taiwan is a key source of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, which are critical to the U.S. economy and the rise of artificial intelligence. Or, he said, Taiwan should pay the U.S. for protection.

Tech stocks sold off quickly, sending the Nasdaq stock index down 2.5% in one day on July 17. “Some of the pressure on big tech stocks today appears to be related to [Trump] “Taiwan should pay for US defense,” Capital Economics said on July 17, the day Bloomberg published Trump’s interview. Shares of TSMC, the Taiwanese semiconductor giant, fell 7% on the news.

Even if he runs a good campaign, Trump is not guaranteed to be elected.

Despite all of Biden’s misfortunes, he is within three points of Trump in the standings. Cook Political Report Poll Average.

And an already unpredictable race could get even more complicated. Biden could always step aside and be replaced by a less familiar Democrat. Trump is also scheduled to be convicted of 34 felonies in New York’s fraud trial on Sept. 18, just six weeks before the election. And both candidates are old and frail in their own ways, raising the risk of a health emergency in the final stretch of the election.

Whatever prices the markets set today, they could reverse tomorrow.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

Click here for political news related to trade and financial policies that will shape tomorrow’s stock prices.

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We are the editorial team of Financial Block, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Financial Block, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products

Financial Block Staff

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Bitcoin Surpasses $63,000 as Money Flows into New US Investment Products

Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)

Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.

Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.

Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices

The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.

A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.

Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF

The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.

The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.

The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.

The story continues

Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus

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FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun

Financial Block Staff

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International Accounting Bulletin

Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.

Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.

At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.

Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.

Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.

Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.

Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”

FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”

“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”

“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.


The information on this website has been included in good faith for general information purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we make no representations, warranties or assurances, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our website.

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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision

Financial Block Staff

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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
  • Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.

  • Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.

  • 10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.

BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.

Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.

Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.

Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.

10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.

The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.

“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”

The story continues

UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.

UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.

UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.

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The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Financial Block Staff

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The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.

Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”

This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.

Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.

Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.

And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.

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Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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