News
The European Central Bank is lying about Bitcoin or lying to itself
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) published a blog repeating debunked claims about bitcoin {{BTC}}. The world’s first and largest cryptocurrency, according to ECB Director General Ulrich Bindseil and advisor Jürgen Schaaf have failed as a currency and an investment. And therefore, its fair value is “zero dollars”.
In other words: the central bank of the world’s largest trading bloc cannot recommend Bitcoin because it’s going to crash.
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“The latest approval of an ETF does not change the fact that bitcoin is not suitable as a means of payment or as an investment,” Bindseil and Schaaf wroteReferring to Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Fund Fleet which went live in the United States in January, which have so far significantly exceeded analysts’ forecasts.
If it seems odd for the ECB to comment on Bitcoin, that’s probably because the authors also feel the same way. Crypto mood change, and see a potential rally on the horizon after the successful launch of ETFs and the lifting of crypto winter. Bitcoin price has more than doubled to over $51,000 in the past six months, according to CoinDesk Indices.
“For society, a new Bitcoin boom and bust cycle is a dire prospect. And the collateral damage will be massive,” they write, later adding that “Bitcoin’s price level is not an indicator of its sustainability.” Still, it is impossible for the authors not to acknowledge recent gains, even if they predict that one day the “speculative bubble” will burst.
“The fall 2023 rally was sparked by the prospect of an imminent reversal in interest rate policy from the US Federal Reserve, the halving of BTC mining rewards in the spring [2024] and later, the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF,” write Bindseil and Schaaf. It’s an interesting move to reverse time to try to explain what “initiated” the Bitcoin rally Considering these three factors – rate cuts, halving and ETFs – are still in play.
See also: Bitcoin ETFs See Record Weekly Inflows of $2.4 Billion
Despite these economic factors, the authors argue that bitcoin “is still not suitable as an investment” because it lacks cash flow, dividends, productive business uses or “social benefits” and that interest in the asset is primarily a matter of FOMO and “the effectiveness of the Bitcoin lobby.”
Why exactly have Bitcoin boosters been so effective over the years? Why are stablecoins being adopted quickly in countries experiencing hyperinflation? Why is Bitcoin attractive to Americans and Europeans? These are questions that are not being asked, perhaps because over the last decade the euro has lost 99.5% of its value compared to bitcoin, according to TradingView data.
The story continues
It’s not even the first time the ECB predicted the demise of bitcoin. In 2022, Bindseil and Schaaf wrote that a move from $17,000 to $20,000 in the weeks following FTX’s collapse was a “dead cat bounce” and “one last artificially induced burst before the road to irrelevance.” While it is true that it took a long time for bitcoin to regain ground, bitcoin now appears ready to retest its all-time high around $69,000.
I am not at all willing to think about why people are interested in cryptocurrencies (for example, not once have the words been said high inflation, savings or fees mentioned), Bindseil and Schaaf further argue that any increase could likely be explained by “price manipulation” and fraud. They cite a Forbes study of 2022 which found that 51% of reported bitcoin trading volumes were likely falsified, a study I might add that does not make Bindseil and Schaaf’s mistake of confusing price and volumes.
But the authors can’t help but view bitcoin as a criminal enterprise — drawing connections between disparate events to suggest that misuse anywhere means abuse everywhere. At one point, they discuss how the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Twitter/X the account was hacked to post fake news on Bitcoin ETFs, for example. (Maybe it’s just me, but I think this has a more negative impact on the SEC than the Bitcoin network.)
So much so that the ECB is either intentionally lying or genuinely wrong about the criminal use of bitcoin, a long-standing claim that has been refuted time and time again. Without citing a source, the authors write: “Despite the market slowdown, the volume of illicit transactions continued to increase. ” All evidence availableincluding Chainalysis’s annual crime reports, suggest that crypto crime decreases in market downturns.
See also: Crypto Money Laundering Dropped 30% Last Year: Chainalysis
Furthermore, the claim that bitcoin “remains the first choice for money laundering in the digital world” is demonstrably false. It may be unfair to compare bitcoin to the global reserve currency, the US dollar, which dominates global and online crime, but why again the 500 euro note banned?
Later, the authors directly contradict themselves by discussing precisely why Bitcoin is losing favor with criminal users: because it is run on an immutable, completely public, and transparent ledger. “Therefore, Bitcoin is a cursed tool for anonymity, facilitating illicit activities and leading to legal action against violators through transaction tracing,” they write.
The only thing the authors may have gotten right was when they stated that “the decentralized nature of Bitcoin presents challenges for authorities, sometimes leading to unnecessary regulatory fatalism.” Certainly, Bitcoin exists for a reason – whether they want to review it or not – but that doesn’t mean that use of this network can’t be regulated appropriately.
The ECB would be better off doing just that, rather than predicting the death of Bitcoin for the thousandth time.
News
Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products
Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)
Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.
Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.
Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices
The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.
A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.
Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF
The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.
The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.
The story continues
Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus
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News
FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun
Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.
Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.
At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.
Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.
Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.
Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.
Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”
FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”
“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”
“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.
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News
Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
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Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.
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Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.
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10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.
BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.
Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.
Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.
Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.
10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.
The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.
“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”
The story continues
UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.
News
The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse
Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.
Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”
This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.
Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.
Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.
And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.
The story continues
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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