Austin, Texas – The biggest news this year on Consensus appears to be the political shift happening in the Democratic Party regarding cryptography. While President Biden’s administration has essentially maintained the same reluctant-to-the-point-of-almost-hostile-to-crypto approach as its predecessor, since the industry’s decline in 2022 (the year of crypto hell), it has been actively hostile. The easiest way to sum up Biden’s “whole of government” attempt to wrangle the crypto industry is with the catchphrase Operation Choke Point 2.0, coined by VC Nic Carter to describe the apparent debunking of many crypto companies.

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But in a matter of weeks that changed. Starting with the bipartisan vote in the House and Senate to repeal the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) much maligned accounting report (SAB121) and extending to yesterday’s revelation that the Biden administration is reportedly reaching out to crypto firms in a late-stage attempt to hear what they have to say about what a good encryption policy would look likeIt has become (almost) credible that better days are ahead on the political, regulatory and legislative fronts for the domestic crypto industry.

The feeling is in the air, probably because everyone seems to express it out loud. For example, yesterday on the Consensus stage, NYSE President Lynn Martin said that she doesn’t think crypto will remain a “partisan” issue much longer. In the same way that stocks and bonds are mostly apolitical, it doesn’t make much sense to view cryptography as inherently political (in fact, cryptography may have a better argument for being truly apolitical, given the technical design of protocols like Bitcoin).

However, not everyone is aligned here. For example, a top crypto lawyer who works for a hot DeFi startup, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of his work, said he doesn’t think Biden’s apparent change of heart is genuine. “He will probably get back on course if he is re-elected,” he said. Asked if he felt any weight on his shoulders, or if his job has become or will become easier under apparently better regulatory conditions, he said “absolutely not”. Today is the same as yesterday.

Austin Campbell, a Columbia University business professor who is connected to the D.C. Circuit, echoed this idea in noting that the seemingly parallel change in Congress is likely not permanent. In fact, if we look at how the vote on the historic Financial Innovation and Technology Act for the 21st Century (FIT21) happened, it was largely divided along age lines. While this in itself may be positive, given that younger members of Congress are more likely to “get it,” and despite the fact that US politics is a gerontocracy, dinosaurs will not rule the world forever.

This morning, Messari founder Ryan Selkis, who recently spoke with former President Trump at the Mar-a-Lago Club, and Uniswap Labs chief attorney Marvin Ammori, a longtime Democratic operative, debated the recent ongoing political machinations on the main stage. Selkis’ main argument was that any crypto easing by Democrats is largely a result of Trump capturing the “single issue” crypto vote, and that it should be treated as suspect. While Ammori argued that political changes don’t flip like a switch, and that things like SAB121 and FIT21 were the result of real bipartisan collaboration and successful crypto lobbying.

“The point is, we don’t necessarily want to be partisan, because that will be a setback in the long run,” Ammori said. In other words, crypto should be careful when aligning itself with any party or candidate – especially considering that campaign promises are rarely kept. For his part, Selkis wanted to move away from wishful thinking (i.e., that Democrats might suddenly support crypto after so many years) and into the realm of realpolitik (i.e., that if the theory of bipartisan support were true, it would be either because Democrats’ needs have changed).

“Democrats are now like a cheating spouse; we caught them with their pants down,” Selkis said. “Rewarding this Democratic party, the main party right now, is not only foolish, but I think it shows a profound lack of self-respect – they need to do penance.”

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