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Ether ETF will be a “monstrous success”, but not like Bitcoin

Financial Block Staff

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Ether ETF will be a “monstrous success”, but not like Bitcoin

While the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to allow fund managers to issue spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the regulator gave the green light on the New York Stock Exchange (^NYA) and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) to start listing funds. James Seyffart, research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence ETF, joins Morning Brief to discuss the significance of this move for Ethereum (ETH-USD) and other altcoins.

Don’t get your hopes up, Seyffart says: altcoins won’t get a chance at an exchange-traded fund anytime soon. The analyst explains that an ether ETF can exist today because it has a federally regulated futures market, like bitcoin (BTC-USD). These markets allow the SEC to monitor fraud and manipulation.

While it seems unlikely that an ether ETF will pass, “the political winds are turning quickly,” Seyffart notes, pointing to pro-crypto legislation that is passing Congress with support from both Democrats and Republicans. Seyffart adds that demand for Ethereum is 30% of that for Bitcoin, although an ether ETF will still be a “monstrous success.” The analyst explains that Ethereum loses its usefulness when placed in an ETF.

For more expert insights and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.

This article was written by Gabriel Roy.

Video transcription

As we bring in James Seaford, who is the Bloomberg Intelligence ETF research analyst.

Nice to have you here with us and thanks for coming this morning.

I mean, how important is this for Ethereum?

And how many other alternative plays could look at this and say, hey, we, we, we might have a chance.

Yeah, thanks for having me, Brad.

Um, I don’t think the others will be so lucky in the short term.

Um, look, the Bitcoin ETF S was approved because we have a federally regulated CME Bitcoin futures market.

And basically the SEC said we’re not going to approve anything unless we have a market that we can monitor and we can make sure there’s no fraud or manipulation.

So that’s basically what the DC circuit court that she just talked about allowed the approval of the Bitcoin ETF.

Ethereum is the only other digital app with a federally regulated futures market that trades with enough size and frequency that, theoretically, the SEC could look for some kind of fraud and manipulation that doesn’t exist really elsewhere and which indicates that things are changing very quickly. .

The political tide has turned.

I mean, just a week ago we didn’t think this was going to happen, but everything has really changed.

The story continues

On Monday, there were 180 in total.

As for us from DC.

And the SEC on this, we think they were probably going to deny these things until the end of last week.

James, what do you think, what’s changed?

And secondly, what do you think the demand will then look like for these three potential ETFs?

Yeah, I mean, what’s changed if the political winds have changed?

I mean, if you just look at what’s happened in Washington DC, it’s almost insane to look at what’s happened over the last two weeks, right?

Trump said he was pro crypto.

You had the SAB 121 votes in Congress, which we don’t need to get the weeds there.

But it’s also pro crypto legislation uh and the Senate had a group of Democrats including uh Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on the crypto side uh vote and you had the same similar things with Fit 21 which is a other crypto.

Bill.

Nancy Pelosi sided with 71 different Democrats.

It seemed like a partisan decision, didn’t it?

It seemed to be Democrats versus Republicans.

Republicans were more pro, some Democrats were still pro crypto, but for the most part everything changed the minute Trump basically said he was pro crypto.

And I think there’s been a lot that’s changed in Washington, D.C. over the last few weeks with respect to the ban.

Um, if you look at Ethereum versus Bitcoin, just the asset, Ethereum’s market cap is about 30% of Bitcoin’s.

So if you take that into account, you translate that into an ETF and you look at other ETFs around the world.

So the US is not the first to have an Ethereum and Bitcoin ETF, the demand will be much lower than what we saw for Bitcoin.

So we’ve seen about $13 billion in flows into the Bitcoin ETF since its launch on a net basis.

Um, so if you factor in that 30%, I think there’s going to be even less than that 30-30% interest.

First, these things will not allow staking, which is equivalent to the native yield you would get on Ethereum.

You lose a lot more utility by simply putting Ethereum into an ETF and not allowing it to be used.

Demand will therefore probably be, in our opinion, a little lower than this 30% ratio.

So it depends on who you talk to, but we’re still hoping to invest billions of dollars here.

So it should be a monster success if and when we get, well, not if when we get those final approvals from the SEC for issuers to actually launch these things, what’s the timeline on that?

We know that out there, I mean, whoever tells you that, they know it, they’re lying or they’re high and dry at this point, as far as I’m concerned.

Um, there’s a huge gap there, right?

So it can take up to five months, there are examples where it takes five months before this is adopted.

Um, I think the Bitcoin ETF is probably the most apt analogy and it took about three months, a lot of the language and concerns and issues that had to be resolved between the SEC on these risk disclosures, what these offering documents are. must be disclosed to those who invest in them.

Much of the problem has been solved with futures, ETFs and ETFs.

So the Bitcoin ETF took 90 days, I think it will probably be less than 90 days.

I think it could take weeks, but it could also take months.

So, since we don’t really know, my gut tells me that if they went and really did a 180 like we think they did at the end of last week, that means it took them three days to get these 19 before approvals after usually taking 240 working days to obtain them. actually do this stuff, they can speed things up.

So I think it will be measured in weeks, if not several weeks, most likely at least, but it could take months.

There’s no way to know.

So now with cryptocurrencies and, and especially the majors Bitcoin and Ethereum, having their ETF asset class moment, the use value proposition or, or use case, is it more important ?

Um, I think that’s the case because what matters is what’s actually happening in the ecosystem of these assets.

RIGHT.

It’s the ETF that’s nice.

They’re good, great for people who want financial exposure, especially if they’re looking to do things like a tax advantage account, like an IRA or if they have money on a brokerage platform and if they want to ensure exposure.

What that’s going to provide is financial exposure to asset investing if you want another one, if there are other reasons why you would want to access these things, which is out there, uh, there There are a lot of people doing things with Ethereum in decentralized finance. on these different decentralized platforms.

Um It’s the same with Bitcoin, there is a reserve of sovereign wealth.

You can kind of do whatever you want with it.

You can take custody of your own assets yourself, which you can’t really do with much else.

All these things still exist.

But it takes these assets out of the defi world and onto traditional financial rails in a very unique way.

So there’s this thing that’s happening right now with a lot of these asset managers, it’s going both direct, right.

They take these native digital assets and put them in these packaging of the traditional financial world.

But there are also examples where they take traditional financial assets, like money market funds, and wrap them, tokenize them, and place them in the decentralized finance world.

A lot of these asset managers and these banks are probably going to play a lot at that intersection between those two things.

Um And it’s going to be fascinating to watch over the coming years.

Really great context and insight that James broke down.

Who is the Bloomberg Intelligence ETF research analyst, James.

Thank you very much for taking the time.

Thank you for.

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Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products

Financial Block Staff

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Bitcoin Surpasses $63,000 as Money Flows into New US Investment Products

Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)

Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.

Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.

Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices

The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.

A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.

Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF

The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.

The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.

The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.

The story continues

Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus

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FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun

Financial Block Staff

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International Accounting Bulletin

Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.

Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.

At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.

Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.

Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.

Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.

Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”

FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”

“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”

“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.


The information on this website has been included in good faith for general information purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we make no representations, warranties or assurances, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our website.

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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision

Financial Block Staff

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Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
  • Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.

  • Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.

  • 10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.

BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.

Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.

Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.

Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.

10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.

The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.

“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”

The story continues

UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.

UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.

UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.

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The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Financial Block Staff

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The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse

Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.

Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”

This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.

Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.

Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.

And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.

The story continues

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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