In a prediction shared via YouTube videoJoe Burnett, senior product marketing manager at Unchained Capital, articulates a strong case for Bitcoin to reach a $750,000 valuation. According to Burnett, the market may be substantially underestimating Bitcoin’s potential this cycle, often losing sight of its broader context within the global financial ecosystem.

Why Bitcoin Could Surge to $750,000

Burnett begins by addressing a common oversight in market analysis, which typically juxtaposes Bitcoin’s current cycle against historical performances without taking into account its evolving market context. “I think it’s possible that a lot of people are undervaluing Bitcoin in this cycle,” Burnett stated, emphasizing the need to view Bitcoin through the lens of its relative position in total global wealth.

A key component of Burnett’s argument is the HODL model created by Rational Root, which he discussed extensively on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast. The model points to a critical inflection in 2020, coinciding with the third Bitcoin halving—an event that reduces the number of new bitcoins generated and therefore granted to miners to verify transactions.

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Burnett explains: “This model is fascinating because it shows a logical inflection point that occurred in 2020 around the third halving. He highlights that illiquid offer as a percentage of the total supply held at an all-time low, and has been slowly rising since then.” According to him, this reflects a shift towards Bitcoin being increasingly held by long-term holders rather than circulated by miners and speculators.

After 2020, Burnett argues that Bitcoin entered a new phase characterized by a decreasing supply of liquid coins. “Until the third halving, Bitcoin was really just in the process of distributing coins through proof-of-work mining; nearly 90% of all coins were mined by 2020,” he explains. The subsequent reduction in new coin generation after the halving spurred a gradual transition from a freely circulating supply to a more closely held asset.

Burnett’s forecast also takes advantage of a comparative analysis gold analysistraditionally seen as a robust store of value. He challenges this notion by highlighting flaws in gold’s economic mechanics, particularly its 1% to 2% annual increase in supply, which introduces continuous selling pressure. “Gold has a negative feedback loop, considering it is not perfectly scarce like Bitcoin. Hundreds of billions of dollars of new gold is mined annually,” Burnett points out, arguing that this diminishes gold’s appeal as an investment.

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On the other hand, he describes Bitcoin halving events as a “positive feedback loop,” where the decrease in new supply every four years inherently drives price appreciation, spurring new waves of adoption. “The amount of new Bitcoins being mined is cut in half. This repeats until no new Bitcoins are mined,” he adds, suggesting a built-in scarcity that reinforces its value over time.

Zooming in on a global scale, Burnett references the total global wealth of nearly quadrillions of dollars, of which Bitcoin’s current market cap is just a fraction. He argues that Bitcoin’s market share is poised for significant expansion, potentially commanding a sizable portion of global wealth.

This contrasts sharply with the more conservative expectations of several experts who barely see Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 threshold in the near future. “With all that said, the ‘concept of diminishing returns’ could easily be flawed. We live in a world with nearly $1 quadrillion of total global wealth and Bitcoin is 0.1% of that,” Burnett says.

He concludes with a quote from Michael Saylor: “All your models will be broken,” and added “anything below the size of gold is absurdly early. Gold parity is now at about $750,000 per Bitcoin, which means that if Bitcoin’s market size just reached the market size of gold.”

At press time, BTC was trading at $

BTC trades below key resistance area, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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