Gox was once the world’s leading crypto exchange, handling more than 70% of all bitcoin transactions in its early years. In early 2014, hackers attacked the exchange, resulting in the loss of around 740,000 bitcoins ($15 billion at current prices). The hack was the largest of many attacks on the exchange in the years 2010-13.

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Investors can breathe a sigh of relief as net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded net outflows worth US$ 31 million for the first time in two weeks, according to data analytics platform SoSovalue.

This new vote of confidence in Bitcoin by institutional investors coincided with the Bitcoin Price recovering from $59,495 to $61,485 at the time of writing, a 3.5% increase after Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark on June 25.

Fidelity’s FBTC fund saw the largest inflow US$49 millionwhile Bitwise’s BITB fund witnessed an influx of US$15 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC fund recorded the largest outflow of US$30 million.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a massive sell-off, with net outflows in US$ 714 million in the previous five trading sessions. The sell-off intensified on June 24, when Mt. Gox trustees announced that the creditors of Monte. Gox would start receiving refunds starting next week.

Another factor in the rise in Bitcoin’s price is the likely derivatives liquidations. About US$62 million amounts in short positions were liquidated, which represented the vast majority of total liquidations that occurred in the last 24 hours.

A note from the Off the Chain Capital trading desk shared with Decrypt suggests that the creditors of Mt. Gox, who will begin receiving refunds starting next week, may not be too keen on parting ways with their decade-old holdings.

“After Mt. Gox distributions are made, I believe the market will generally not begin dumping the assets immediately because I do not see as many credit holders selling their Bitcoins once received as might have happened if they had received them several years ago. ”Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital, wrote in the note.

The reason, he added, is that Bitcoin has matured considerably since Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy in 2014.

“The claim holder should ask themselves if they need this money for anything or if they are better off holding Bitcoin as a long-term store of value,” Dixon wrote, adding that BTC has been the best-performing asset in 12 of the last 15 years.

The sentiment was shared by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research.

creditors have been stuck in MT Gox bankruptcy for over 10 years – finally administrator says cash distribution #BTC #BCH will begin in July. we think that fewer coins will be distributed than people think and that this will cause less #bitcoin selling pressure than the market expects

here’s why 👇

– Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 24, 2024

“Creditors have been stuck in Mt. Gox bankruptcy for over 10 years – finally administrator says in-kind distribution of #BTC #BCH will begin in July. We believe that fewer coins will be distributed than people think and that this will cause less #bitcoin selling pressure than the market expects,” Thorn tweeted.

In a follow-up tweet, Thorn stated that individual creditors are unlikely to sell their earnings as they are long-term holders and noted that they have had the option to sell their claims for nearly a decade. He added that the sale of recovered BTC would also incur significant capital gains tax for US creditors, as Bitcoin has soared substantially over the past decade.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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Investors can breathe a sigh of relief as net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded net outflows worth US$31 million for the first time in two weeks, according to data analytics platform SoSovalue.

This new vote of confidence in Bitcoin by institutional investors coincided with the Bitcoin Price recovering from $59,495 to $61,485 at the time of writing, a 3.5% increase after Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark on June 25.

Fidelity’s FBTC fund saw the largest inflow of US$49 millionwhile Bitwise’s BITB fund witnessed an influx of US$15 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC fund recorded the largest outflow of US$30 million.

Bitcoin ETFs had a huge sell-off, with net outflows in US$714 million in the previous five trading sessions. The liquidation intensified on June 24, when the trustees of Mt. Gox announced that the creditors of Monte. Gox would start receiving refunds starting next week.

Another factor in the rise in Bitcoin’s price is the likely liquidation of derivatives. Almost US$ 62 million amounts in short positions were liquidated, which represented the vast majority of total liquidations that occurred in the last 24 hours.

A note from the Off the Chain Capital trading desk shared with Decrypt suggests that Mt. Gox’s creditors, who will begin receiving refunds from next week, may not be too keen on offloading their decade-old assets.

“After Mt. Gox distributions are made, I believe the market will generally not begin dumping the assets immediately because I do not see as many credit holders selling their Bitcoins once received as might have happened if they had received them several years ago. ”Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital, wrote in the note.

The reason, he added, is that Bitcoin has matured considerably since Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy in 2014.

“The claim holder should ask themselves if they need this money for anything or if they are better off holding Bitcoin as a long-term store of value,” Dixon wrote, adding that BTC has been the best-performing asset in 12 of the last 15 years.

The sentiment was shared by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research.

“Creditors have been stuck in Mt. Gox bankruptcy for over 10 years – finally administrator says in-kind distribution of #BTC #BCH will begin in July. We believe that fewer coins will be distributed than people think and that this will cause less #bitcoin selling pressure than the market expects,” Thorn tweeted.

In a follow-up tweet, Thorn stated that individual creditors are unlikely to sell their earnings as they are long-term holders and noted that they have had the option to sell their claims for nearly a decade. He added that the sale of recovered BTC would also incur significant capital gains tax for US creditors, as Bitcoin has soared substantially over the past decade.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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Stop for a moment and think about how far Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has arrived. What was once worth just a few cents has blossomed over the past decade and a half and is now worth more than $60,000. By most accounts, it’s probably a safe bet that Bitcoin will continue to rise over the next 15 years. But what about the more immediate future?

Here’s a little speculation about where Bitcoin could go in 2025.

Image source: Getty Images.

The Cyclical Nature of Bitcoin

As unpredictable as the price of Bitcoin may seem, since its inception in 2009, it has followed an eerily similar pattern over periods of approximately four years. Referred to as a cycle, Bitcoin has gone through three cycles so far and is currently in its fourth.

It’s probably no coincidence that the duration is four years, as that’s how often Bitcoin reduce by half occurs. After every 210,000 blocks added to its blockchain (which happens approximately every four years), Bitcoin’s inflation rate is halved. This change essentially introduces a supply shock and means that even if demand remains constant, its price have to go up to compensate for the reduction in your offer.

Typically, the four-year cycle has been something like this. It started with a bear market phase, like the one seen in 2022, characterized by a sharp decline from a previous peak. The following year typically marked the beginning of a recovery phase, similar to the upward trend we saw in 2023. The third year, which includes the halving and is what we are currently in since Bitcoin halved in April, has often triggered surges. of notable prices as anticipation of reduced supply becomes apparent. Finally, in the fourth year, which would be 2025 if the cycle remains true, Bitcoin tended to experience its most notable gains.

Bitcoin Price Projection in 2025

While there are no guarantees, Bitcoin appears to be following its four-year historical pattern for now. Assuming the pattern will continue, we can make educated guesses about what its price might be in 2025 based on what has occurred in past cycles. Let’s start with 2024, the current year, as Bitcoin underwent its most recent halving in April.

As explained previously, the halving has a great influence on the price of Bitcoin. In 2012, the year of Bitcoin’s first halving, it jumped 119%. Four years later, in 2016, it achieved a commendable gain of 93%. And in 2020, it soared 174%. This means that in years where a halving occurs, Bitcoin has increased by an average of around 125%. Let’s start here before entering 2025.

The story continues

If Bitcoin grows 125%, then when measuring its price in early 2024, it would be plausible to expect Bitcoin to be worth $99,000 by the end of the year. Given that Bitcoin is already up around 60% this year, it would only take another 60% jump to maintain the historical norm. This may seem significant, but remember, this is Bitcoin. History shows it can cover that kind of ground in just a few months.

Assuming 2024 plays out this way, we could see Bitcoin at nearly $100,000 by early 2025. That in itself is impressive and makes investing today a valuable opportunity. However, in previous cycles, the total effect of the halving reached its peak in the year following the event.

In 2013, a year after Bitcoin’s first halving, it grew by an astonishing 840%. After another halving in 2016, it followed in 2017 with a 331% gain. Then in 2020 it rose a healthy 174%. Add it all up and, on average, Bitcoin has made staggering gains of 400% during these post-halving years. Therefore, when measured from a projected starting price of $99,000 in early 2025, a 400% increase would push the price of Bitcoin to nearly $500,000 by the end of next year.

Managing expectations

It is worth recognizing that past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, until proven otherwise, the continuation of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is, at the very least, convincing.

What’s more important is that history shows that the full effect of halving doesn’t fully materialize until at least a year later. Furthermore, even if Bitcoin falls below its post-halving year average in 2025 or the cyclical pattern is broken, it could be argued that few other assets offer as much long-term potential as Bitcoin.

With its finite supply of 21 million coins and industry-leading levels of decentralization and security, Bitcoin has become the quintessential cryptocurrency, an achievement that should help it sustain its price appreciation journey for years to come.

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RJ Fulton has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Bitcoin. The motley fool has a disclosure policy.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2025? was originally published by The Motley Fool

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