Bitcoins (BTC) The renewed price recovery has caused options traders to reconsider the possibility of the cryptocurrency reaching the $100,000 level at some point this year.

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap rose more than 12% to $63,470 since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discarded Additional tightening or rate hikes as the next policy move last Wednesday, CoinDesk data shows. Friday’s disappointing US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data validated Powell’s position, accelerating BTC’s rally.

As such, there has been a notable increase in demand for bitcoin call options on major Deribit cryptocurrency exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) networks. These options specifically target a rally to new highs, potentially surpassing $75,000 and even reaching $100,000.

“We are seeing some follow-through upside in volatility and rates following the recovery from Friday’s reversal and over the weekend. BTC risk reversals were positive (calls are more expensive than puts) and [there has been a] renewed demand for BTC due in September at $75,000 and calls at $100,000,” QCP Capital said in a note on Monday.

A call option gives the right to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market and a put buyer is bearish.

Institutional OTC cryptocurrency trading network Paradigm made a similar observation on Monday, stating increased demand for out-of-the-money (OTM) calls or those on strikes well above the BTC market rate.

“The options market appeared to anticipate a short-term rally early this morning, with the main BTC and ETH trades on Paradigm consisting of long-sized OTM calls. [expiry] $200,000 call buyer closing his position to buy July 2024 [expiry] US$85,000 strike,” Paradigm said in a Telegram broadcast.

Data from Deribit shows that traders have locked more than $688 million worth of $100,000 strike call options across different expiries. This is the largest amount of notional open interest among all options listed on the exchange.

At the time of writing, more than 150,000 call options contracts worth $9.5 billion are active on Deribit. This is more than twice the amount of open interest in put options, a sign of optimistic market expectations.

Notional open interest refers to the dollar value locked in the number of active or open contracts. On Deribit, an options contract represents one BTC or one Ether (ETH).

Both fundamental and technical analysts are once again united in the idea that the path of least resistance for bitcoin is on the upside.

“Bitcoin continues to be supported by the US election cycle and ongoing deficit spending. This is why we adjusted our ‘line in the sand’ from 68,300 to 62,000 in our May 3 report – the market could trade (tactically) at rally above 62,000,” 10X Research said.

Siwssblock Insights expects the dollar index (DXY) to remain on the defensive unless Powell’s position is challenged. A weaker DXY is generally good for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The DXY fell 1.2% to 105.20 since Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.

“The dollar’s weaker position will likely persist as long as economic data continues to support that direction and as long as Federal Reserve officials do not contradict Powell’s position. The labor market is showing signs of easing, but more aggressive voices from the Fed may still push to keep rates higher for longer, which could impact the dollar’s trajectory,” said the latest Swissblock Insights newsletter.

Meanwhile, Elliot wave analysis by John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, suggests bitcoin could rise to 92,000.

‘BTC price action continues to track my expected path for Wave 4, as seen in the chart below. While the drop to $56.5K may have completed the correction, I still expect to see a price of $52-55K before Wave 4 concludes. 2/ Once Wave 4 is complete, I expect the momentum from Wave 5 to around $92K occurs,” Glover said in an email to CoinDesk.

Ralph Nelson Elliott introduced Elliot wave theory in 1938 in his book The Wave Principle. The theory assumes that asset price movements can be predicted by observing and identifying a repeating wave pattern.

Trends unfold into five waves, of which 1,3 and 5 are impulse waves, representing the primary trend, while 2 and 4 show temporary pullbacks of previous impulse waves.

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