News
Traders are counting on Trump cryptocurrency to boost bitcoin price
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Hello and welcome to the FT Cryptofinance newsletter. This week we look at bitcoin’s outlook for the second half of the year.
As the US presidential election draws closer, cryptocurrency traders and analysts are hoping that a Donald Trump victory in November will snap the price of bitcoin out of its recent stupor.
The cryptocurrency, a good proxy for all crypto activity, peaked in mid-March and has struggled to move higher since April’s so-called halving event, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network dropped from 900 to 450. Since then, it has fallen about 15% and on Friday fell below $54,000, its lowest point since February. That defied many predictions that after the halving, bitcoin would start to recover.
Analysts have suggested that the lackluster performance is due to the number of potential sales weighing on the market: $9 billion in bitcoin and bitcoin cash sales from the defunct Japanese exchange Mt Gox; possible bitcoin sales by miners; and the signal sent over the past two weeks by U.S. and German authorities, which have shifted portions of criminal seizures to cryptocurrency exchanges.
“The two authorities hold over $15 billion worth of bitcoin, which is enough potential selling pressure to make bitcoin holders nervous in the short term,” said analysts at Ryze Labs, a cryptocurrency venture capital firm.
Traders also noted the effect of Bitcoin basis trading — in which hedge funds use borrowed money to bet on the convergence of the price of Bitcoin futures and the Bitcoin spot ETF — in dampening volatility.
As the market searches for the next catalyst, there is growing talk of a “Trump trade” – a potential rally in bitcoin in the second half of the year on the prospect of a victory for the former president in November. This belief has only grown since last week’s presidential debate.
The optimism boils down to two perceptions: Trump is the most pro-crypto candidate and his policies will make assets like bitcoin more attractive to the rest of the world.
It has already shown itself to be more open to courting the industry by hosting cryptocurrencies mining industry leaders at Mar-a-Lago, accepting crypto contributions and generally making positive noises.
Industry executives are hoping that a Trump-led White House and a strong Republican presence in Congress will mean Washington will be more willing (finally) to adopt clear, cryptocurrency-friendly regulations.
“Cryptocurrency mining companies should also benefit, particularly from Trump’s energy policy proposals, which could allow the use of alternative energy sources for bitcoin mining,” said Manuel Villegas, an analyst at Julius Baer.[President Joe] “Biden’s previous tax proposals on cryptocurrency miners, such as a 30% tax, are unlikely to be implemented under a Trump administration,” he added.
The second perception is a question that is beginning to creep into traditional finance as well: What will Trump 2.0 mean for financial markets more broadly?
The market currently expects that stricter immigration policies, more tariffs on foreign goods and tax cuts will increase the US deficit and lead to higher inflation and higher US Treasury yields.
Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, argues that Trump’s policies could create “fiscal dominance,” when a government’s deficit and debt become so large that the central bank’s main weapon, interest rate changes, have little impact.
That would affect the price of bitcoin, he said, because the cryptocurrency tends to have a reasonable correlation with some crucial U.S. Treasury indicators, such as the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries and breakeven rates.
A steeper curve and higher breakeven rates than real yields should push bitcoin’s price higher, he argues, as the coin acts as a good hedge against declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market.
Trump’s odds are based in part on whether Biden will be his opponent in November. RealClearPolitics Betting Average, a composite of prediction sites, puts Trump at 55% and Biden’s odds at just 16.5%, after plunging last week.
This suggests that if Biden stays in the race, bitcoin supporters will be reinvigorated. If he withdraws and the new candidate is seen as having a chance against Trump, bitcoin could remain in the doldrums.
But that may not matter. Theories about bitcoin, whether as a hedge against inflation or an alternative to the financial system, tend to disintegrate when faced with reality.
But it doesn’t help. As Ben Hunt, chief investment officer of asset manager Second Foundation, eloquently put it: wrote This week, on his Epsilon Theory blog, “behavior changes ONLY when we think everyone believes the information.” If enough people believe Trump will win, the cryptocurrency market will move.
According to Kendrick, the most likely outcome is that by the end of July it becomes clear that Biden will run, the probability of Trump winning increases further, and bitcoin skyrockets. [high] “In August, it’s likely, then $100,000 by US Election Day.”
All markets need a narrative to sustain their momentum. But bitcoin, which has no cash flow, needs it more than most. As excess sales are cleared by the market, expect the market to strengthen over the summer.
What do you think? Email me at philip.stafford@ft.com
Highlights of the week
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Silvergate, the defunct California bank will pay $63 million to settle civil charges brought by federal and state regulators related to the bank’s collapse following the massive fraud that brought down cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
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The US Marshals Service has selected Coinbase for jail crypto assets seized as part of U.S. government criminal investigations. The agency has previously detained assets belonging to Silk Road and Mt. Gox. The five-year contract is worth $32.5 million.
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Bitcoin mining firm Genesis Digital Assets, in which trading group Alameda Research has invested $1.15 billion, is considering a U.S. IPO, Bloomberg reports reported.
Data mining: the rebound
Here’s another indicator of the slowdown in crypto markets. Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges had a strong first half, with total aggregate spot volumes up $10.6 trillion from $4.32 trillion in the second half of last year, according to CCData. March was a record month, it added. The main driver was the arrival of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. However, the chart also shows how the post-halving lull has affected volumes.
Cryptofinance is edited by Laurence Fletcher. To view previous editions of the newsletter, click here here.
Your comments are welcome.
News
Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products
Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)
Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.
Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.
Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices
The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.
A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.
Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF
The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.
The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.
The story continues
Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus
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News
FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun
Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.
Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.
At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.
Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.
Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.
Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.
Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”
FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”
“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”
“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.
The information on this website has been included in good faith for general information purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we make no representations, warranties or assurances, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our website.
News
Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
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Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.
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Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.
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10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.
BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.
Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.
Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.
Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.
10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.
The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.
“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”
The story continues
UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.
News
The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse
Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.
Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”
This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.
Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.
Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.
And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.
The story continues
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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