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3 Things About Bitcoin The Media Won’t Tell You
2018 was a bleak year for bitcoin investors and, predictably, there was no shortage of headlines announcing the death of bitcoin. But if you step back and focus on the hard data, the situation isn’t as dire as these articles might suggest. Here are three things the financial media isn’t telling you about bitcoin right now.
1. Long-term investors don’t sell.
Despite the drop in price, blockchain data from Glassnode shows that more investors than ever are holding bitcoin for the long term. Two-thirds of all existing coins (blue line) have not changed wallets in a year or more, meaning they have not been sold. What’s interesting is that this figure is up from its level of 57% earlier this year, a time when the price of bitcoin was almost three times higher than it is today. And even with all the FTX Drama last month, bitcoin holders did not move: their conviction in the active has only grown stronger.
Source: Glassnode.
Holder behavior becomes even more interesting when we look at the number of coins that have been moved from centralized crypto exchanges (green line) to private wallets. So, not only are investors holding more coins, but they also seem to be locking them up for now, again, with no intention of selling them.
Source: Glassnode.
Of course, this could also be because investors have less and less trust in centralized exchanges in general, given the number of exchanges that have gone bankrupt this year. And here’s another thing to keep in mind: institutional investors are starting to go digital active custody solutions that allow them to trade bitcoin on an exchange — without those coins actually being on the exchange in the first place. Their custody providers have sophisticated technology that connects to exchanges to make this happen. In other words, the rise of institutional crypto funds could be partly responsible for the increase in the number of coins coming off exchanges. And this increase in institutional investors isn’t a bad thing for Bitcoin, either.
2. The Bitcoin network continues to grow.
Two things suggest BitcoinBitcoin’s network is growing steadily. The first is its hash rate (orange line) – the total mining power needed to run the network – which continues to grow. The higher the hash rate, the more secure the network. Now, the hash rate has been dropping over the last month or so, but that’s what you’d expect with the price dropping. Miners are winning profits In bitcoin, after all, they are more likely to turn off their machines if the game is not worth the effort. But as the chart shows, these sharp drops in hash rates are usually only temporary and have generally provided good long-term entry points.
Source: Glassnode.
The second is the total number of wallet addresses with a Bitcoin balance greater than zero (blue line), which continues to increase even though the price of Bitcoin has fallen. This is either because holders are splitting their coins into more wallets, or because there are simply more new investors buying Bitcoin. But with the percentage of Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved in at least a year also reaching record levels, I’d say the latter scenario is more likely.
Source: Glassnode.
3. Many levers have been eliminated from the system.
One of the main reasons why bitcoin and cryptocurrencies crashed this year is that there was simply too much leverage in the system. When traders buy a price drop using leverage – basically, borrowed money margin from an exchange or broker – they bet that the price will go up. But if the price continues to fall, they may be forced to sell because they don’t have enough. collateral to stay in their positions. This turns small sales into much bigger sales.
And retail traders aren’t the only ones affected: large funds like Three Arrows Capital and Alameda are in the same situation. When a market is subject to too much leverage, it must disappear to regain its health.
The following graph shows the opening interest on leveraged Bitcoin derivatives contacts (purple line), as well as the price of Bitcoin (white line). This level of debt is now close to that of January and May 2021, and although it could fall further, it is a sign that many overindebted speculators have already been eliminated from the market.
Source: CryptoQuant
What is the opportunity here?
Sure, bitcoin could easily go down a bit from here, but the data suggests it’s trading at a good value relative to other points in its history. That’s good from a risk-reward perspective. As with all investments, you don’t need to time the exact bottom to profit long term. So if you think Bitcoin might start to break through, dollar-cost averaging – investing set amounts of money at set time intervals, rather than investing all at once – is a proven strategy. It could help you take advantage of Bitcoin’s lower price levels while reducing your risk, and it could be very profitable in the long run.
For the contrarian investor, it’s an age-old story: If you focus too much on the news, you risk missing the real story.
News
Bitcoin soars above $63,000 as money flows into new US investment products
Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. (Chesnot via Getty Images)
Bitcoin has broken above the $63,000 (£49,745) mark for the first time since November 2021, when the digital asset hit its all-time high of over $68,000.
Over the past 24 hours, the value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization has increased by more than 8% to trade at $63,108, at the time of writing.
Learn more: Live Cryptocurrency Prices
The price appreciation was fueled by record inflows into several U.S.-based bitcoin cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in January this year.
A Bitcoin spot ETF is a financial product that investors believe will pave the way for an influx of traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, indications are favorable, with fund managers such as BlackRock (BLK) and Franklin Templeton (BEN), after allocating a record $673 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.
Learn more: Bitcoin’s Success With SEC Fuels Expectations for an Ether Spot ETF
The record allocation surpassed the funds’ first day of launch, when inflows totaled $655 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (I BITE) alone attracted a record $612 million yesterday.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Earlier this week, veteran investor Peter Brandt said that bitcoin could peak at $200,000 by September 2025. “With the push above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current market bull cycle, which is expected to end in August/September 2025, is raised from $120,000 to $200,000,” Brandt said. published on X.
The influx of capital from the traditional financial sphere into Bitcoin spot ETFs is acting as a major price catalyst for the digital asset, but it is not the only one. The consensus among analysts is that the upcoming “bitcoin halving” could continue to drive flows into the bitcoin market.
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and is expected to happen again next April. The halving will reduce the bitcoin reward that miners receive for validating blocks on the blockchain from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This could lead to a supply crunch for the digital asset, which could lead to price appreciation.
The story continues
Watch: Bitcoin ETFs set to attract funds from US pension plans, says Standard Chartered analyst | Future Focus
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FRA Strengthens Cryptocurrency Practice with New Director Thomas Hyun
Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA), an independent consultancy specializing in regulatory investigations, compliance and litigation, has welcomed U.S.-based cryptocurrency specialist Thomas Hyun as a director of the firm’s global cryptocurrency investigations and compliance practice. Hyun brings to the firm years of experience building and leading anti-money laundering (AML) compliance programs, including emerging payment technologies in the blockchain and digital asset ecosystem.
Hyun has nearly 15 years of experience as a compliance officer. Prior to joining FRA, he served as Director of AML and Blockchain Strategy at PayPal for four years. He established PayPal’s financial crime policy and control framework for its cryptocurrency-related products, including PayPal’s first consumer-facing cryptocurrency offering on PayPal and Venmo, as well as PayPal’s branded stablecoin.
At PayPal, Hyun oversaw the second-line AML program for the cryptocurrency business. His responsibilities included drafting financial crime policies supporting the cryptocurrency business, establishing governance and escalation processes for high-risk partners, providing credible challenge and oversight of front-line program areas, and reporting to the Board and associated authorized committees on program performance.
Prior to joining PayPal, Hyun served as Chief Compliance Officer and Bank Secrecy Officer (BSA) at Paxos, a global blockchain infrastructure company. At Paxos, he was responsible for implementing the compliance program, including anti-money laundering and sanctions, around the company’s digital asset exchange and its asset-backed tokens and stablecoins. He also supported the company’s regulatory engagement efforts, securing regulatory approvals, supporting regulatory reviews, and ensuring compliance with relevant digital asset requirements and guidelines.
Thomas brings additional experience in payments and financial crime compliance (FCC), having previously served as Vice President of Compliance at Mastercard, where he was responsible for compliance for its consumer products portfolio. He also spent more than seven years in EY’s forensics practice, working on various FCC investigations for U.S. and foreign financial institutions.
Hyun is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS) and a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). He is a graduate of New York University’s Stern School of Business, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in finance and accounting. Additionally, he serves on the board of directors for the Central Ohio Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) chapter.
Commenting on his appointment, Hyun said, “With my experience overseeing and implementing effective compliance programs at various levels of maturity and growth, whether in a startup environment or large enterprises, I am excited to help our clients overcome similar obstacles and challenges to improve their financial crime compliance programs. I am excited to join FRA and leverage my experience to help clients navigate the complexities of AML compliance and financial crime prevention in this dynamic space.”
FRA Partner, Roy Pollittadded: “As the FRA’s sponsor partner for our growing Cryptocurrency Investigations and Compliance practice, I am thrilled to have Thomas join our ever-expanding team. The rapid evolution of blockchain and digital asset technologies presents both exciting opportunities and significant compliance challenges. Hiring Thomas in a leadership role underscores our commitment to staying at the forefront of the industry by enhancing our expertise in anti-money laundering and blockchain strategy.”
“Thomas’ extensive background in financial crime compliance and proven track record of building risk-based FCC programs in the blockchain and digital asset space will be invaluable as we continue to provide our clients with the highest level of service and innovative solutions.”
“FRA strengthens cryptocurrency practice with new director Thomas Hyun” was originally created and published by International Accounting Bulletina brand owned by GlobalData.
The information on this website has been included in good faith for general information purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we make no representations, warranties or assurances, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our website.
News
Bitcoin trades around $57,000, crypto market drops 6% ahead of Fed decision
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Bitcoin fell in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, with ether and other altcoins also falling.
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Financial markets were weighed down by risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference later in the day.
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10x Research said it is targeting a price target of $52,000 to $55,000, anticipating further selling pressure.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} was trading around $57,700 during European morning trading on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since late February, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded its worst month since November 2022.
BTC has fallen about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, after breaking below the $60,000 support level late Tuesday, according to data from CoinDesk. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost nearly 9% before recovering part of its decline.
Cryptocurrencies have been hurt by risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets amid stagflation in the United States, following indications of slowing growth and persistent inflation that have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to deliver its latest rate decision later in the day.
Ether {{ETH}} fell about 5%, dropping below $3,000, while dogecoin {{DOGE}} led the decline among other major altcoins with a 9% drop. Solana {{SOL}} and Avalanche {{AVAX}} both lost about 6%.
Bitcoin plunged in April, posting its first monthly loss since August. The 16% drop is the worst since November 2022, when cryptocurrency exchange FTX imploded, but some analysts are warning of further declines in the immediate future.
10x Research, a digital asset research firm, said it sees selling pressure toward the $52,000 level due to outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds, which have totaled $540 million since the Bitcoin halving on April 20. It estimates that the average entry price for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is $57,300, so this could prove to be a key support level.
The closer the bitcoin spot price is to this average entry price, the greater the likelihood of a new ETF unwind, 10x CEO Markus Thielen wrote Wednesday.
“There may have been a lot of ‘TradeFi’ tourists in crypto – pushing longs all the way to the halving – that period is now over,” he wrote. “We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely push prices down to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 high – hence our $52,000/$55,000 price target over the past three weeks.”
The story continues
UPDATE (May 1, 8:56 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 9:57 UTC): Price updates throughout the process.
UPDATE (May 1, 11:05 UTC): Adds analysis from 10x.
News
The Cryptocurrency Industry Is Getting Back on Its Feet, for Better or Worse
Hello from Austin, where thousands of crypto enthusiasts braved storms and scorching heat to attend Consensus. The industry’s largest and longest-running conference, which can sometimes feel like a religious revival, offers opportunities to chat and listen to leading names in crypto. And for the casual observer, Consensus offers a useful glimpse into the mood of an industry prone to wild swings in fortune.
Unsurprisingly, the mood is noticeably more positive than it was a year ago, when crowds were sparse and many attendees were quietly confiding that they were considering switching to AI. In practice, that means some of the more obnoxious elements are back, but not to the level of Consensus 2018 in New York, when charlatans parked Lamborghinis outside the event and the hallways were lined with booth girls and scammers pitching “ICOs in a box.”
This time around, Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks have replaced Lamborghinis as the vehicle of choice for marketers. One of the most notable publicity stunts was a startup that paid a poor guy to parade around in the Texas sun in a Jamie Dimon costume, wig, and mask, and then staged a mock assault on him by memecoin characters.
Outside the event was a giant “RFK for President” truck, while campaign staffers manned a booth instead — a reflection of both the election year and crypto’s willingness to latch onto any candidate, no matter how outlandish, who will talk about the industry. RFK himself is scheduled to address the conference on Thursday.
Excesses aside, the general sense of optimism was understandable. The cryptocurrency market has not only recovered from the wave of fraud that nearly sank it in 2022, it is riding a new wave of political legitimacy. This month, cryptocurrencies scored once-unthinkable political victories in Washington, D.C., and there is a sense that the industry has not only withstood the relentless regulatory assaults of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but is poised to defeat them.
And while cryptocurrency is still searching for its flagship application, the optimists I spoke with pointed to signs that it is (once again) upon us. Those signs include the rapid advancement of zero-knowledge proofs as well as the popularity of Coinbase’s Base blockchain and, perhaps most importantly, the large-scale arrival of traditional finance into the world of cryptocurrencies – a development that not only provides a major financial boost, but also a new element of stability and maturity that will, perhaps, tame the worst of crypto’s wilder side. Finally, this consensus marked the end of the Austin era as the conference, under new leadership, will be held in Toronto and Hong Kong in 2025.
The story continues
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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